Hope all goes well… “What’s the difference between the Chinese driving a massive short-covering rally in the miners and the ECB doing the same with European banks?” asked the CIO, heavily long the latter, not waiting for an answer. “Nothing.” Glencore bottomed at 69 and now trades 142. The Euro Stoxx banking index bottomed at 95 and now trades 115. “Are people right to be short miners over the long-term? Yes. Are the

“Maybe it’s rallying because Europe’s inflation rate is falling even faster than Draghi is cutting interest rates,” he said, searching. The Euro touched 1.0822 shortly after the surprise announcement of vastly expanded stimulus. And then reversed abruptly, powerfully, counter-intuitively. “Perhaps it’s because Draghi said he’s not cutting rates again,” he continued. I considered it. Listened. The Euro blinked quietly

“I believe human intuition and human senses are too advanced for artificial intelligence to catch up,” said Lee Se-dol, mankind’s Go champion, a game with more possible moves than there are atoms in the universe. His opponent hummed quietly, patiently – DeepMind – the world’s most advanced form of artificial intelligence. And who doesn’t like a challenge? A little sport? Draghi does. Every central banker does.

Hope all goes well… “Markets provide no explanations,” said Yoda, basking in St. Barts. “They provide prices.” Yoda walked the remote beach, waves advancing lightly up the sand, leaving small traces at each apex. “Illiquid things are impossible to sell when markets decline, so people hedge their risks with whatever they can.” S&P 500 futures, the Russell, ETFs, indexes. “When markets turn higher, these hedges adv

“His promises are as worthless as a Trump University degree. He’s playing members of the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House, and all we get is a lousy hat,” announced Romney, telling Americans what to do, while trying to be funny. One 90 year old white guy laughed. “Do not come to Europe. Do not believe the smugglers. Do not risk your lives and your money. It’s all f

Anecdote: Iran’s hardliners were savaged. Reformers and moderates dominated elections. The theocratic revolution ageing, tiring, falling victim to time. Yielding to youth. Unleashing Persia’s potential, promise. The pendulum. Mao’s revolution in reverse, comrades stealing from comrades on a scale unimaginable. Chinese communists arrested 9,000 fraudsters; another week, another roundup. Beijing desperate to restore ci

“I reckon a poor man who’s about to become less poor is generally happier than a rich man who’s about to get less rich,” mused the CIO. I smiled, hearing a hint of Charles Dickens, who remarked, “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds, nineteen shillings and six pence, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six pence, result misery.” Australi

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” wrote Charles Dickens. Long ago. A breakthrough exposed pancreatic cancer’s Achilles heel; another week, another technological triumph. Extending lives. Boston Dynamics revealed its life-sized humanoid, capable of resisting attempts to topple it, or stop it. Advancing far more rapidly than imagined, robots will solve our needs, replacing our jobs (google it

Hope all goes well… “Bottom line is we basically accept things are gonna get tougher,” said the CIO, Down Under. “Hence the pessimism,” he continued, surveying the distant horizon from a superannuation summit. The world’s great fortunes have all been built by unabashed bulls. Australia’s no exception. “As you know, necessity is the mother of invention and we’ll ultimately pull through with flying colors.” Despite tod

Hope all goes well… “So here’s the question,” said the CIO, “Is pouring over balance sheets, or knowing when to pour over balance sheets, the most important thing?” I considered the profound struggle of so many legendary stock pickers that began just as the age of central bank omnipotence drew to a close. “It’s the latter,” he said, uninstalling Excel, waiting patiently for dislocations to buy, short-covering rallies