“One of my guiding lights is the notion that macro is aggregated micro,” said the CIO. A collage of micro images yields a macro picture. “It’s not a philosophy, it’s the truth.” US consumers hold $100trln of assets, $69trln of which are financial assets, much of which now yield nothing or negative. The rest yield little and GDP growth is slow, even after six years of unprecedented stimulus that pulled future demand (

“A marketing decision!” cried the FBI, furious with America’s greatest marketer. Of course the Bureau’s right. Apple’s decision to withhold an encryption key is all about pushing product. Tim Cook doesn’t love terrorists, he just hates missing sales forecasts. He knows we all hate being spied on, even though we love feeling safe. So we distrust those who protect us, up until we face a crisis. When it all reverses, an

Week-in-Review: Mon: China closed for week, China FX reserves fall $99bln (better than exp), India Q4 GDP +7.3% (Q1 estimate +7.6%), Turkey IP +4.5%, Spain industrial output +3.7%, Russia vehicle sales -29%, EU financials under severe pressure, US labor mkt conditions 0.4 (exp 0.2), S&P -1.4%; Tue: HK food vendor riots, Japan machine tool orders -17.2% (prev -25.7%), Japan M3 +2.5%, JGB 10yr yields turn negative

Hope all goes well… “Do we now know?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “Is this where QE leads?” he whispered, gazing at distant peaks, summit winds lifting their white, painting the blue. Then vanishing. “Is folly not beautiful too?” he asked, closing his eyes, growing quiet. I considered this historic ascent, led upward by so much central banking novelty. But with European stocks now 28% below their highs (17% belo

“Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it,” whined the Winner, devastated, watching his odds fall faster than some drunk dude at the Trump Taj. You see, the Donald knows odds don’t lie. But they do change. His odds to win the Presidency were 3-1 before Iowa; leading Republicans by a mile. Today they’re 8-1; trailing Rubio (2-1), and Hillary (1-1). Now, if the strongest horse lost his first of fifty races by a nose, should h

“We need a resolution in China,” said Eagle, soaring high above Gotham. “Can’t be sure what it is, or when it will happen, but we’ll know it when we see it.” The pressure on China to devalue is building. They can’t ease aggressively without letting the currency go. But a big devaluation risks Beijing’s political credibility. Social stability. “When a system comes under stress, frauds surface. The scale of corruption

“It’s a very beautiful game with extremely simple rules that lead to profound complexity,” he said, marveling at the defeat of man by machine. 19yrs after IBM’s Deep Blue checkmated Gary Kasparov, Europe’s champion conceded defeat in the infinitely more complex game of Go. Google’s Deepmind AlphaGo system triumphed in this game with more board configurations than there are atoms in the universe. Another s

Hope all goes well… “If you got through Jan unscathed it’ll be a great year,” said Roadrunner. “Markets will really move around, there’s going to be lots to do,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But guys who got hurt are trapped.” He stepped calmly aside, dodging an anvil. “They’ll be chasing this thing up and down, trying to get back to even.” Last January’s Swiss franc trap bagged a handful

“Apologies in advance if I seem unfair,” he said. I smiled, curious. “Your ideas seem, well, consensus, unoriginal.” Nice way to start a conversation. So I apologized in advance if what I was about to ask seemed unfair, “Is it possible to deploy such a large pool of capital to people who invest only in original ideas?” He smiled. There’s no such thing as an original idea. Einstein’s theory of special relativity is th

“Always despised this day,” I said fifteen times. “Distilling a year of my life to a single number made me feel cheap,” I continued, starting each bonus conversation. “In my twenties and thirties, my perspective was narrow. I thought the bonus was my compensation. But at 49, having endured ups and downs, good luck and bad, I’ve discovered real compensation comes in the form of opportunity. Because with opportunity co