Hope all goes well… “You can buy as much insurance as you want in every asset class,” said Roadrunner, pecking at a pile. “In a few weeks, we’ve swung from the end of the world to the end of volatility.” Markets overshoot on the downside and upside, vol is no exception. “They’re getting over confident, they’re recklessly selling volatility.” The market’s biggest vol trader glanced left, right, overhead. “I’ve turned

“I think about it all the time,” said the Dean of Technology. We were discussing the future, and what it means to be human. He’s building New York’s most ambitious institution for graduate education. Gotham’s swipe at Stanford. And as our great universities partner with government and business, concentrating technology and human intelligence, societal change accelerates. We live in one of humanity’s great periods of

The apocalyptic newscast rolled. Terrorist-guided drones spread radioactive isotopes across cities. Fifty heads of state watched, aghast. “April Fools,” said Obama, taking the stage. “So many summits are about dealing with things that have already gone wrong and we are trying to put right,” said some attendee, still shaking. “This summit is about something we’re trying to prevent.” Scientists published a paper, model

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Rumors IMF pressing China for currency operation transparency, HK CPI +3.1%, UK house prices +7.6%, Saudi Arabia CPI +4.2%, Russia unemploy 5.8%, Russia retail sales -5.9% (wages -2.6%), Swiss M3 +1.7%, EU CA surplus E25.4bln, EU cons conf -9.7 (exp -8.3), US Chicago Fed activity index -0.29 vs 0.25e, US existing home sales -7.1% MoM (exp -3%), Hawkish fed governors indic

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about doing silly things. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Rumors IMF pressing China for currency operation transparency, HK CPI +3.1%, UK house prices +7.6%, Saudi Arabia CPI +4.2%, Russia unemploy 5.8%, Russia retail sales -5.9% (wages -2.6%), Swiss M3 +1.7%, EU CA surplus E25.4bln, EU cons conf -9.7 (exp -8.3),

“Our chief goal is to make China moderately prosperous by the end of the decade,” stated Prime Minister Li Keqiang to Congress. 2,778 delegates pushed a red button, approving the 13th Five-Year-Plan. 53 brave delegates voted against, 25 abstained. Not a bad showing for a plan that will slash 6mm steel and coal jobs, one of countless sacrifices required to execute the most ambitious and challenging economic transition

Hope all goes well… “You know what I wish Daddy?” asked Charlie, eyes reflecting rainbows. It had been quite a morning. His trap failed to catch the Leprechaun. The lucky little guy stole the gold bait and got away. Mara left tiny emerald footprints to track his path. The Leprechaun had failed to flush. Charlie discovered the toilet water colored Irish green. Then we all sat down to examine the flaws in this year’s t

“We hit peak hysteria on Feb 11th,” said the CIO. Nine months of fears that the US and China were committing policy errors reached a climax. “If you’d forced investors to write down what would’ve made them bullish on China and emerging market assets, they would have written ‘nothing.’ They felt they had the map, knew the path.” And now here we are – no man’s land. “China pumped $500bln of credit into the system

Hope all goes well… “What’s the difference between the Chinese driving a massive short-covering rally in the miners and the ECB doing the same with European banks?” asked the CIO, heavily long the latter, not waiting for an answer. “Nothing.” Glencore bottomed at 69 and now trades 142. The Euro Stoxx banking index bottomed at 95 and now trades 115. “Are people right to be short miners over the long-term? Yes. Are the

“Maybe it’s rallying because Europe’s inflation rate is falling even faster than Draghi is cutting interest rates,” he said, searching. The Euro touched 1.0822 shortly after the surprise announcement of vastly expanded stimulus. And then reversed abruptly, powerfully, counter-intuitively. “Perhaps it’s because Draghi said he’s not cutting rates again,” he continued. I considered it. Listened. The Euro blinked quietly