Overall: “They don’t see it,” muttered Janet to herself, gazing out across the Potomac, diamonds dancing upon its surface. After years of placing faith in Princeton’s Bernanke, Washington politicians turned to Berkeley’s Yellen, praying for Silicon Valley alchemy; to transform their stagnation into acceleration. “Central banking innovation is an illusion,” she whispered, mesmerized by so many diamonds. You see, centr

“Today we unearth our past,” said deputy president Ramaphosa, peering into Homo Naledi’s prehistoric eye sockets. 2.5mm years ago our little ancestors buried their dead in a quiet South African cave, on our 4.5bln year-old planet, spinning in our 13.8bln year-old universe. And when you pull a chart back that far, humanity’s recent bull trend is smoothly upward-sloping, accelerating, breathtaking. “We coul

Hope all goes well… “For years it has taken three weeks for the market to fall, and three days to recover,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies, pausing, considering the great ascent from 2009’s spike low to 2015’s choppy consolidation. “Now is the time to tune in, ignore the news, the noise,” whispered the market’s biggest S&P local. “Look at the chart, consider the behavior.” The S&P 500 fell 10.5% in three days

I ruled out defunct Norse gods. And medieval fortifications. I’m not remotely smart enough for a Latin name. And every trout stream has been trademarked. Rocks are great, stones too, but investing is a game that requires flexibility, fluidity. Of course, you never want a name that carries the risk of irony; like Phoenix. And perhaps the ultimate irony is to obsess over a name, when building a business is about so muc

Hope all goes well… “The last time vol traded this way was Aug/Sep 2011,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. But when markets get like this, treasuries rally and their implied volatility jumps too. “Bond vol was offered all week, it’s the one thing that doesn’t make sense, it tells a different story,” continued the clever bird, glancing left, right, up. “If bond vol fails to jump this wee

Overall: “War is like a mirror. Looking at it helps us better appreciate the value of peace. Today, peace and development have become the prevailing trend, but the world is far from tranquil. War is the sword of Damocles that still hangs over mankind,” said Xi Jinping, commemorating China’s WWII victory. As images of Beijing’s new carrier-killer missiles reflected in the pupils of China’s maritime neighbors. And Amer

“People think the consensus is always wrong; that you make money by being a contrarian,” said the CIO. “Not true.” We were discussing patterns. Because without patterns, we’re lost, adrift in the chaos. Of course, most people seek solace in statistics, frightened by the possibility that there’s no absolute, they quietly ignore the fact that something’s only worth what another’s willing to pay for it. The strength or

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote about the end of every cycle (see below). See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.2

Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.20), S&P -3.9%; Tue: China cuts RRR 50bps and lending rate to 4.60% (prev 4.85%), Abe advisor Hamada strikes dovish tone, Ho

Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC chief economist “expect 2-way CNY price action,” Japan Q2 GDP -1.6% yoy (first fall in 3 qrtrs), Saudi Arabia non-oil exports -21.1% yoy (record low), Russia IP -4.7% yoy, Turkish nationalists reject Erodgan’s coalition plan (unemployment 9.3%), EU Trade surplus E21.9bln (prev E21.3bln), US empire mfg -14.92 (Apr 2009 lows), S&P +0.5%; Tue: Chinese equities -6% (no obvious catalyst), Ban