Hope all goes well… “The last time vol traded this way was Aug/Sep 2011,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. But when markets get like this, treasuries rally and their implied volatility jumps too. “Bond vol was offered all week, it’s the one thing that doesn’t make sense, it tells a different story,” continued the clever bird, glancing left, right, up. “If bond vol fails to jump this wee

Overall: “War is like a mirror. Looking at it helps us better appreciate the value of peace. Today, peace and development have become the prevailing trend, but the world is far from tranquil. War is the sword of Damocles that still hangs over mankind,” said Xi Jinping, commemorating China’s WWII victory. As images of Beijing’s new carrier-killer missiles reflected in the pupils of China’s maritime neighbors. And Amer

“People think the consensus is always wrong; that you make money by being a contrarian,” said the CIO. “Not true.” We were discussing patterns. Because without patterns, we’re lost, adrift in the chaos. Of course, most people seek solace in statistics, frightened by the possibility that there’s no absolute, they quietly ignore the fact that something’s only worth what another’s willing to pay for it. The strength or

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote about the end of every cycle (see below). See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.2

Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.20), S&P -3.9%; Tue: China cuts RRR 50bps and lending rate to 4.60% (prev 4.85%), Abe advisor Hamada strikes dovish tone, Ho

Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC chief economist “expect 2-way CNY price action,” Japan Q2 GDP -1.6% yoy (first fall in 3 qrtrs), Saudi Arabia non-oil exports -21.1% yoy (record low), Russia IP -4.7% yoy, Turkish nationalists reject Erodgan’s coalition plan (unemployment 9.3%), EU Trade surplus E21.9bln (prev E21.3bln), US empire mfg -14.92 (Apr 2009 lows), S&P +0.5%; Tue: Chinese equities -6% (no obvious catalyst), Ban

Hope all goes well… Markets sprang to life. So I dusted off an anecdote on impatience, timing and dragons (see below). Back in Sept with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC chief economist “expect 2-way CNY price action,” Japan Q2 GDP -1.6% yoy (first fall in 3 qrtrs), Saudi Arabia non-oil exports -21.1% yoy (record low), Russia IP -4.7% yoy, Turkish nationalists reject Erodgan’s coalition plan (unemploymen

Week-in-Review: Mon: Chinese exports -8.3% yoy (CPI +1.6%), Japan current account surplus for 12th mth (consumer confidence -1.4 to 40.3), Sweden industrial orders +11.8% (strongest since 2011), Norway CPI +1.8% yoy (lowest since May 2014), Russian Q2 GDP -4.6% (car sales -27% yoy), Mexican wage growth +4.8% yoy, US Fed labor mkt conditions +0.3 to +1.1, Fischer hints no Sept hike, S&P +1.3%; Tue: China devalues

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote on China (see below). See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Chinese exports -8.3% yoy (CPI +1.6%), Japan current account surplus for 12th mth (consumer confidence -1.4 to 40.3), Sweden industrial orders +11.8% (strongest since 2011), Norway CPI +1.8% yoy (lowest since May 2014), Russian Q2 GDP -4.6% (car sales -27% yoy), Mexican wage gr

Hope all goes well… “You need to go to the bank,” ordered Ida, in her trademark General Patton. “Take out $3,600 of cash to cover your apartments and guides in Rome and Florence,” she continued, in a tone that warned: don’t you dare screw this up, land in Europe without enough ammo, and radio for a rescue. “Ida, that’s ridiculous, surely they take credit cards, it’s Italy not Ethiopia.” But apparently it’s headed tha