Hope all goes well… “Landing an airplane is a complicated task, but you do the same things every time,” said Eagle, swooping down from Gotham’s highest perch, to visit my new nest. “But surfing, now that is truly complex; you’re riding a wave,” he explained, narrowing focus. “The Fed thinks they’re landing, when actually they’re surfing.” We looked out across Long Island Sound, clouds reflecting off its chaotic rippl

Week-in-Review: Mon: Chinese May trade surplus $59.5bln masks weakness (imports -18%, exports -2.8%), Japan Q1 GDP revised to +3.9% (prev +2.8%), Japan C/A surplus 10th straight mth, Korea 1-day MERS cases jump 23 people, G7 agrees to phase out fossil fuels, Erdogan losses majority, Merkel “time is running out for Greece,” German IP +1.4% yoy (+0.9% exp), German Trade balance remains at elevated levels led by an incr

Hope all goes well… Pulled up to the complex. For his first lacrosse practice. A field of unfamiliar faces. So Mara asked Jackson if he’d like some company. “No Mom, I got this, I’m gonna go rock this town.” And off he went. Which officially ended our move from out West, and kicked off our new life back East. Dusted off an anecdote from back in the day. See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: C

Week-in-Review: Mon: China PMI soft 50.2, Macau May gaming revenue -37%, Japan Q1 capital spending surges 7.3% yoy, Korea PMI 21mth low (exports 5yr low), Aussie PMI +4.3 to 52.3 (18mth high), Norway PMI 2yr low, Swedish retail sales +3% yoy, German CPI +0.7% yoy, US personal income +4.1% yoy (spending +2.8%), savings rate 5.6%, core PCE prices +1.2% yoy, ISM manufacturing +1.3 to 52.8, S&P +0.2%; Tue: RBA rates/

Hope all goes well… “I could give you the greatest reasons on earth why the market’s going to implode,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “But the entire intelligent world other than Jeremy Siegel have already listed them.” Draghi asked for more volatility this week and got it. So anxious traders, eyeing surging yields, drilled stocks for the 2nd time in a month. Yet prices barely budged. “It’s natural for bulls to gro

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan trade balance slips back into a deficit, Greece says won’t make June IMF payment without new bailout deal, Spain’s People’s Party suffers loses in muni elections, S&P closed; Tue: IMF “Renminbi no longer undervalued,” South Africa Q1 GDP soft at 1.3% yoy, New Zealand trade deficit 6yr high, Tsipras gets party approval to conclude bailout deal (Greece says out of money again), US core ca

Hope all goes well… Taking my one-way ticket to the airport today. Leaving California behind; an extraordinary eleven-year adventure now complete. Heading East, a new chapter. And feeling sentimental about it all, dusted of an anecdote on winding paths (see below). Should be back next Sunday with full wknd notes. But of course moving is more stressful than death, divorce, and getting caught short Dollar/Yen. So havin

Hope all goes well… “So Yellen told us in March she doesn’t want the Euro below 1.07,” said the CIO, uncharacteristically uninspired. “And the ECB has now told us they don’t want it above 1.15,” he yawned. “Tell me, who do you want to fight?” Markets are chopping in ranges. With the exception of Chinese equities. And slowly, quietly, Japan hit 20yr highs, as the S&P 500 made a new record. “Guess you just buy stoc

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan machine orders +2.6% yoy (exp -6%), Japan IP -1.7% yoy, NZ introduces cap gains real estate tax (macro prudential policy), ISIS seizes Ramadi, Yemen conflict resumes, UK house prices fall most in 9mths, New Zealand announces cap gains tax on real estate, SF Fed paper “Q1 GDP may understate true strength of economy, S&P +0.3%; Tue: China record capital outflows(trade surplus stable), RBA

Hope all goes well… “Started getting really excited that yields were backing up as stocks were wobbling,” growled Bulldog. “That’s lights out, that’s where everyone gets eaten alive.” On an ageing planet with ample supply, deficient demand, sluggish growth and large debts, a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds would be ruinous. And every professional investor knows it. So having just tasted that trade, why has t