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“Like it or not, the world functions on a supply of dollars; stock and flow,” he said. “Stock is the amount of dollar debt and its equivalents. Flow is the incremental dollars of GDP created; call that global income.” The stock of debt has never been larger, in both real and nominal terms. But 2015 global GDP, converted into dollars, will contract for the first time since 2009. “The world’s gross balance sheet is big

“When Luka was four, I told his grandfather that soccer wasn’t ever going to be his thing,” said my buddy, an athlete. “He didn’t believe me. He couldn’t accept it. But I had. So I told him to go kick Luka a ball,” he explained, laughing. Grandad quickly concluded Luka should “stick to math.” Which is what he did, does. “As he grew, we spent our weekends exploring NY on the subway. Surfacing to look at monuments, sta

“Wouldn’t you say the Japan experience resembles what’s happening all over the world?” asked the Scandinavian. Global interest rate and growth forecasts have been too high for seven years. “Are we consistently unlucky, or doing something systematically wrong?” continued the CIO. “And during this time, stimulus continually increased; we cut rates lower than forecast, printed money faster, and expanded global debts.” M

“I tell the bad boys to leave my little sister alone,” read the caption. The photograph, two young girls, orphaned street-dwellers, somewhere in Syria. I wandered through Fotografiska, a Stockholm gallery, embarking on my Nordic whirlwind. “Twenty-five thousand, and more come each day,” said the sympathetic statistician in Copenhagen, “In three years, just thirteen percent will find work; we pay for the rest of their

“Experience is helpful, and often an impediment,” he said, just back from Silicon Valley, electrified. “We have very few good businesses in our industry. But those guys out there, they have good businesses.” Uber, Google, Facebook, Palantir; turning grey matter into green paper. He started his firm decades ago, when the entrenched hedge funds looked at investing from the top down. He looked at it from the bottom up.

Out came the fluffer; an enthusiastic economist, frantically arousing the crowded room, bursting with limp Nikkei bulls. “One arrow can be broken,” he cried, snapping a single imaginary shaft with his hands. “Two arrows can be broken,” he teased, breaking them over his knee. “But three arrows?” taunted the economist, unable to break the bundle of arrows, no matter how hard he struggled. We sat, unstirred. You see, th

“Declining productivity rates,” he answered, after a long, thoughtful pause. We’d been discussing the interplay of technology and the global economy, emerging investment trends, themes. I finished by asking a favorite question: What in your world do you find most perplexing? You see, if you want an explanation for what just happened, ask an economist. If you want a forecast, ask a strategist. Explanations and forecas

“No,” said my oldest. And I smiled as we walked; you see, he’s inherited my rage-against-the-machine gene. He’d spent summer training. Hours a day. Every day. Shooting, rebounding, running. And tried out for his favorite club; 3D Lacrosse. They passed on him. So he spent this week agonizing, alone in the yard, shooting in sweaty fury. Preparing to try out for a rival; The Chargers. An unexpected 3D email arrived; a s

I ruled out defunct Norse gods. And medieval fortifications. I’m not remotely smart enough for a Latin name. And every trout stream has been trademarked. Rocks are great, stones too, but investing is a game that requires flexibility, fluidity. Of course, you never want a name that carries the risk of irony; like Phoenix. And perhaps the ultimate irony is to obsess over a name, when building a business is about so muc

“People think the consensus is always wrong; that you make money by being a contrarian,” said the CIO. “Not true.” We were discussing patterns. Because without patterns, we’re lost, adrift in the chaos. Of course, most people seek solace in statistics, frightened by the possibility that there’s no absolute, they quietly ignore the fact that something’s only worth what another’s willing to pay for it. The strength or