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“Driverless electric Tesla’s, powered by Google, dispatched by Uber will shuttle people around continuously – the technology already exists, this future is inevitable,” explained the brilliant macro CIO, basking in California’s bright sunlight, whisking me 20yrs forward. Of course, regulations need to catch up. They will. “And annual car sales will collapse from today’s 100mm pace to just 20mm.” You see automobiles a

“The bond bubble may burst sooner than expected,” said a top-ten portfolio manager, from his Greenwich bunker, with no positions, atop a pile of dry powder. “God help us all,” he continued, chronicling the 20yr serial string of bubbles blown by loose Fed governors. “The bond bubble is the mother of ’em all, 35yrs in the making.” And when something persists for decades, it’s impossible to fully grasp the insidious way

“So you Eric are a white man, I am a black man, and imagine he is a colored woman,” instructed the policy maker, pointing to my host (a brilliant young white economist, looking puzzled). “Let us say that being a white man in Johannesburg you earn $100k, being a black man I earn $10k, and being a colored woman she has no job and lives beneath a sheet of plastic – tell me, what do you do?” he asked, turning to me. Now

“They came first for the Communists, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Communist,” whispered the bold black letters, engraved in granite. And recognizing the quote, I reached for Jackson’s shoulder, drew him near. You see we were in Boston, wandering. And had happened upon what appeared to be an artistic installation of unusual beauty. Grace. “Then they came for the Jews, and I didn’t speak u

Saddled up Dreamer. And Mara mounted Q. At a dusty trailhead, hidden deep in West Marin’s redwoods. The two studs snorted, jumpy, excited. Ready to rip. So we did. You see, Mara grew up racing, but peeled off pre-Olympics. When we met, I shuddered at the sight of a saddle. Which was a deal killer. So naturally, before we got hitched, she broke me. Now 14yrs later we race through redwoods. Barely in control. Praying f

“I’m okay Dad,” answered Jackson, on my return from London. His eyes said otherwise. So I dropped my bags, went for a walk. To talk. “I lost the game, let everyone down,” explained my oldest, eyes downcast. You see, his Lacrosse team had tied the finals. So the referees called for a “Braveheart” tiebreaker. Which means each team fields two players; a goalie and center mid-fielder. The two middies face-off. Then fight

“My next generation of portfolio managers are our future, and they’re brilliant,” boasted the CIO, atop his prodigious pile. “But they still strive for complete information.” Which is investing’s greatest trap. Because complete information is investment opportunity’s inverse. His outsized returns this year can be traced back to a flash of insight late last year. You see, he’d sensed the policy shift in Japan was seis

Turned a corner, early evening. A sharp switchback, around a towering rock. And encountered a fox. He leapt, gracefully, spinning his body, to point it away. His head turned back, our eyes locked. And with this hedge thus perfectly placed, he held position. Relaxed. Curious. Watching. So I did too. It’s summer time in Santa Barbara. Which means it’s dry. Just over the mountains, this season is deadly hot. So savvy pr

“So what’d you tell ’em?” I asked. And he laughed. You see he’s one of my references, my second boss – Lehman London ’92. But he’s a great friend now, a guy I call for business advice, family too. Which I never asked for back then. “At the end they asked, ‘Is there anything we didn’t ask but should’ve?’” he replied. So he proceeded to tell them his golden rules, learned over decades of building businesses, inve

“It’s a wake up call,” he said, calm, relaxed, alert. “A fire drill,” continued the market’s top volatility trader. You see, all this tapering talk from the Fed was a trial alarm. To test the market’s state of awareness. And as it turns out, the world was sound asleep. Even Goldman’s Hatzius was surprised, and of course, no one knows the Fed better than Jan. “Everyone was on the wrong side of this move, there was too