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His passion for it was fading. He knew that much. “But what to do?” whispered the Economist, mostly to himself. For decades he’d examined every word, placing it into context, comparing the endless stream of Fed statements to their predecessors. He took great pride in not missing a single interview by all twelve voting members. While he couldn’t recite Fed Chair press conferences verbatim, he got close. And that impre

“Look closely,” whispered Eagle soaring, Gotham far below. So many bridges, tunnels, ships, connecting the narrow rock to a vast world, stretching out forever. From such heights, the city appeared inanimate, cars motionless, ferries frozen, white brushstrokes in their wake. “Humans struggle to see things that move slowly,” said Eagle. Each day, 2.4mm people arrive, depart, Gotham’s population flowing to 4mm, ebbing t

He would have me throw the bones, seated on skins in a quiet yurt. The cup’s contents tumbled across the floor. Tiny bones, hyena, lion, leopard, vulture, a small gold Krugerrand, colorful beads, ivory, crystal, ironwood. The South African had dedicated his journey to studying western medicine and Namibian shamanism; the former a miracle, the latter magical. He combined the two, shared the gift. Shamanism connects us

“I very strongly disagree with you,” he said. I smiled, happy to have smart friends eager to argue. Because being wrong sucks. I’d rather hear it than endure it. But it’s rarely so simple as being right or wrong, because assets are priced based on a consensus view of the future. So you can be right and make no money. Anyhow, since tomorrow often looks like today, which usually resembles yesterday, most people look be

Change is magnificent, he thought, along the stream. Walking. Spring had become summer, lush, in what seemed an instant, little by little, then all at once. The barren banks were now covered in green, dense bramble, concealing. Across the world change is taking hold. For the entirety of his career, with few exceptions, the study of markets had been an examination of central bank policy. On the Chicago floor in 1989,

On he walked. So many charts swirling in his mind, each its own story, all somehow connected, everything is. Major highs and lows are rare moments of wild hope or great fear, vivid, mistaken. He’d lived the 1989 Nikkei high, that euphoria, the hysteria, Japan’s Rockefeller Center purchase. He’d experienced every turn since. While it’s impossible to pick a high or low, the character of each is distinct. In 1989, with

“Americans are unwilling to save,” said the CIO. “The Japanese and Germans are unwilling to spend,” he continued. “If the latter two could generate exceptional investment returns on their savings they’d have all the money in the world within two business cycles.” They haven’t, and won’t. “The US model is credit-driven, with Americans in perpetual search of the sucker, like buyers of Tesla and Netflix bonds.” They loo

In Chicago’s commodity pits, we measured risk by calculating how much we’d personally lose if we got stopped out. Clearing firms stood in the shadows, scythes sharpened, Grim Reapers. At Lehman in the early 1990s it was no different. Then in 1995, management gave us a tool called Value-at-Risk (VaR). It seemed foolish at first, because it was. VaR calculated past correlations of each position to all others, observed

“Where will we be in seven years?” asked Lithium, handsfree on Highway One, repeating my question. We were talking about stocks, which investors assume return 7% per year on average, forever. That means they rise 60% every 7yrs, which would leave the S&P 500 at 4300 in 2025. But GMO now forecasts that US large cap equities will return -2% per year in nominal terms each year for the next seven (-4.2% per year in r

“Remember that bad oyster?” I asked. He groaned, it was years ago. “You know there’s no pretty way to deal with food poisoning. You got two options, both awful,” I continued. He agreed. We were talking politics, policy, our President. My brother is a scientist, entrepreneur. The greatest threat his company faces is that the Chinese steal his technology. Because that’s what they do. Sounds ugly, but if there’s an Amer