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Those shifting plates beneath Japan won’t stop. And it ain’t just Tokyo shaking. Global forecasts are moving too. Fukushima got upgraded from 5-7, which may be really bad, but who knows, I’ve been brainwashed to rate danger by color code. Japanese minister Yosano shuddered, “The economic damage may be bigger than expected.” The IMF did too, lowering US and Japanese GDP forecasts. Fitch opened a new fault line, placed

Yawn. Boring. Same stuff. The US Dollar extended its inexorable decline. Pretty much everything you can buy with devalued Dollars extended an inexorable rally. China continued to hike interest rates (4th time), mkts yawned. George Soros, called the ECB’s 25bp rate-hike “quite inappropriate,” continuing his thoughtful policy of criticizing every EU policy. Credit-rating agencies continued to downgrade Portugal. Of cou

Sadly, one-way bets are a rare find, usually got a short shelf life. Bernie offered one, then made off. Greenspan offered one, then hiked rates in ’94, mkts/economy collapsed. Princeton Professor, quick study, wants to slowly take back his one-way gift. Prepare us for two-way risk. Opened his aviary, ordered hawks and doves to deliver a cacophonic burst. Evans, “Substantial policy accommodation continues to be approp

Just took a little pinprick, and now we’re Comfortably Numb. Injected near-zero rates, printed Dollars, Yen, Sterling, and Euro’s (worldwide reserves hit record $9.38trln). And there’ll be no more pain, but we may feel a little sick. Analysts tallied the cost of Japan’s trifecta: $309bln (4 Katrina’s) – Nikkei surged 3.6%. Portugal’s gov’t fell (Canada’s too), stumbling into the arms of a forecast $99bln bailout. Fin

Spent some time focused on my kiddies this wk. Wasn’t alone. Prime Minister Kan led his children through an almost comically crowded pool of angry black swans. The G7 punished childish currency traders for front-running the flow of money back to Japan. The Libyan madman showered his errant children with tough love, then sent a touching note to his son in the White House. The Germans (and French), angry with their red

A man under siege grabs a weapon, shoots. And while all politicians are Man, very few are men – power is nature’s most corrosive agent. Of course, Autocrats turn weapons on their subjects. Democrats point weapons at Autocrats (when it suits). Central Bankers fire on inflation and unemployment in equal measure (well, not quite equal). And investors shoot losers. So it was this wk. Libya’s madman spent decades ex

Markets hate uncertainty; and that’s the only commodity not in short supply these days. With bulging deficits, oil at 29yr highs, recovering economies, and talk of easy-money exit strategies, investors are edgy. So leaders cut the surplus of uncertainty. Bernanke led a dovish chorus, signaled a continued flow of free paper, hinted at QE3 and stated, “The recovery is not firmly established, monetary policy needs to be

On a dark Mar ’09 morning, the world gazed intently into the rear-view mirror. Oh the Horror. But naturally, most missed the view out the windshield. Well, the S&P 500 just completed a 100% rally from that panic low; a feat last achieved in the 2yrs leading to 1937. Hmmm… And now the view in the rear view mirror just gets prettier. S&P 500 Q4 earnings +35% to all-time highs, over 70% beat profit forecasts for

Men are driven by a primeval fight-or-flight impulse so naturally, when we feel unloved or unwanted, some fight, others take flight. And the world kinda loves Doves these days, so it ain’t easy being a Hawk. But US Fed’s Lacker fought, “The distinct improvement seen in the economic outlook since QE2 was initiated, suggests taking re-evaluation quite seriously.” Fed’s Fisher battled too, “I’ll be at the forefront of t

Dizzying week, anything not bolted-down rotated – particularly attitudes. US/EU growth expectations surged, emerging mkt expectations sagged. Chicago PMI rocketed to 68.8 (highest since ’88), German PMI hit 60.5, but Brazil printed just 53.1, China 54.5, and Australia (China’s mine) fell to 46.7 (5th mthly drop). Citigroup’s Economic Surprise index measures how strong actual economic reports are relative to consensus