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Anecdote: “Revised 2025 Bitcoin Act has been published,” texted Marcel Kasumovich, never really sleeping, one eye always open. “Key differences: (1) 200k bitcoin purchases per year, (2) Holding period now permanent, (3) Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) engaged as a coordination function, and (4) Gold reserve revaluation being used to fund bitcoin purchases,” continued Marcel, keeping the team current. The ESF is an

Anecdote: “There were forty of us, huddled in the middle of Cannon Field, it was absolutely dumping rain,” said Jackson, from Quantico, VA. “Our staff platoon commander had us carry out a heavy sea bag, a cooler of beer, we obviously knew this was the day.” The Basic School is a six-month program focused on developing a foundational understanding of infantry tactics, decision-making under pressure, and the Corps’ war

Hope all goes well… “Bear markets happen when policy stimulus fails,” bellowed Biggie Too, Global Chief Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “They happen when the Fed cuts rates and it doesn’t work, because it’s too late,” barked Biggie. “For that to happen now, we need to see some combination of major DOGE cuts, lasting tariffs, and chronic policy uncertainty that leads to a situation where t

Anecdote: In college, I took a course on global commodities, taught by a professor who made a fortune speculating in soybeans ahead of an El Nino in the 1970s. He told us there would someday be a war over who controlled Ukraine and its uniquely fertile soil. It made sense, like many things do if you remove the need to time them precisely. He taught us a lot of things, one of which was that you could fit every human o

Hope all goes well… “The American economic story has seen periods of high tariff rates coincide with extraordinary economic success,” said Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. “There’s nothing in the historical record that would say that it’s impossible to have a fabulous economy with high tariffs,” he added, explaining that Apple’s decision to invest $500bln in US-based projects

Anecdote: The breadth and depth of distractions are extraordinary these days. Skinning up the mountain, the air thin, cold, a bitter gust. People appear to be losing their minds, frightened of anything, everything, like in the depths of a major crisis, and even so, markets remain rather firm, placid. International equities are outpacing the US so far this year. And Germany’s Dax index is 16.4% higher than the day bef

Hope all goes well… “The plebes on my team asked for advice on defending against jabs,” said Liv, her freshmen nervous about combatives training, a mandatory hand-to-hand combat program at West Point. “So, I told them what my teacher taught me.” Her senior year in high school, Liv marched her 5 feet 4 inches to a gritty MMA gym in Stamford and took to it. “He had me stand still and let each guy in the gym hit me with

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2018 (see below) about the changes happening in America and with Americans. Back then it became clear that a process of great significance was underway. It continued beneath the surface during the Biden years and has now manifested more clearly and forcefully than ever before. Enjoy Presidents Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, E Week-in-R

Anecdote: I love survival stories. Nothing good ever happens to dead people, so it seems worthwhile to study the art of enduring. That’s naturally a metaphor for trading, investing, business building too. So, I think about it a lot, and remind my team of its importance, particularly in periods of volatility, shifting sands, great change. Laurence Gonzales wrote a book called ‘Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and W

Hope all goes well… “Diversity is our strength,” said Pete Hegseth in a recent town hall at the Pentagon. “That is the single dumbest phrase in military history,” continued the US Secretary of Defense, presiding over 2.8mm active-duty, reserve, National Guard, and civilian personnel. The US pendulum is swinging hard. It is far too early to know where it will take the country, and with it, the world. “I think our stre