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Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from late 2018, exploring the preconditions for what has started to unfold in markets, politics, policy (see below). It’s often good to step back, survey the landscape. The dynamics that brought us here were decades in the making. And it would be unprecedented if this cycle shift lasts less than ten years. Back in January with full weekend notes. All the best, E Week-in-Revi

“To prepare for the future, we must first reimagine the past in a manner that central banks won’t,” said the CIO. “So, what is it that central banks can’t imagine?” he asked, rhetorically. “Can they imagine being both right and wrong? Right that the inflation potential of the system is low due to the persistence of deflationary forces that are now well known, but wrong because their actions – based on this beli

Hope all goes well… “You guys are late for dinner,” I said, Teddy and Liv walking into the kitchen, black boots, blue pants, white pressed shirts, name tags, surgical scissors, full Emergency Medical Technician uniforms. “Sorry Dad, we got held up on a call,” said Liv (18). “Everything okay?” asked Mara, always concerned, but conditioned to not pry, rules of the game with two volunteer EMTs in the house. “Mind if I t

Hope all goes well… “My brain says jump, but my body won’t move,” whispered Teddy this morning, not looking at me, staring into the distance, the wind howling. “It means you’re thinking Teddy — don’t overthink this, just jump,” I said, climbing my way out of the water, the rest of my little lemmings leaping off the rock, plunging into icy water. Charlie, Liv, Jackson. Kerplunk. Kerplunk. Kerplunk. Teddy closed

Anecdote (December 2015): “Cliff jumping,” answered Jackson, without hesitation, taking charge. Olivia, Teddy and Charlie cheered. Filling the air with the magic of mischief. I’d asked for ideas. We needed out. Thanksgiving had overwhelmed us. So we piled into the Suburban, in search of sanctuary, solitude. The Greenwich cliffs are hidden deep in back-country. And like so much in today’s wild, they’re forbidden. So w

Hope all goes well… “I need to decide,” whispered Biden to himself, struggling, unsure. “Lael is just terrific, no doubt, and her Fed wouldn’t dare cut off my funding,” thought the President, old enough to remember bond vigilantes. “But you can’t help but like Jay, a fine gentleman, a decent human being, and face it, he’s still buying over $100bln of bonds a month with CPI humming hotter than 6%,” thought Joe, having

In my twenties I read everything, my religious ritual. The Economist, cover to cover without fail. Barron’s. Their roundtables. So many newspapers, my Sundays utterly consumed. Wall Street research, countless numbing reports. Week in review. Ahead too. Year after year in preview. If I learned anything at all, it is that there is no single truth, just interpretation. And it’s not that there is anything wrong with bein

Losing money sucks. Lots of other things do too. Most of us hate being wrong. We go to extraordinary lengths to protect our egos. Which is absurd of course, but we are curious little creatures, taught as children to aim for 100% on each test, to win every ball game. At some point in a trading career, we either learn to deal with the humiliation of making mistakes or we fail. And the way karma works, the harder we den

Hope all goes well… “My favorite part about today’s zoom was that I saw you all collectively conjure the entrepreneurial/creative spirit,” I wrote to my team after a late-Friday internal meeting, a break-through brainstorming session. “It is the key ingredient for anything truly innovative, magnificent,” I continued, yet another insane week nearly done, racing to capitalize on a world changing at breathtaking speed.

Hope all goes well… “Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock,” tweeted Elon. “Do you support this?” asked Musk, Saturday afternoon, providing his 62.5mm Twitter followers a yes/no voting app. “I will abide(n) by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes,” added Elon. “Note, I do not take a cash salary or bonus from anywhere. I only have