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A“Want a scary story?” I asked some nerds. They nodded, firing up Excel in eager anticipation. “Once upon a time, America’s vast state pension system was insolvent. But everyone pretended otherwise.” One little nerd interrupted the Zoom session, and asked me why? “Because no one admits they’re broke. Anyhow, pension boards required perpetual +7.5% returns, and tasked their CIOs with the search for that Holy Grail. Th

Hope all goes well… “You know the best part about giving Charlie a mohawk?” asked Jackson dealing at the kitchen table. “What’s that?” asked Charlie, counting his chip stack, all of us on edge. “It’ll be watching him explain to his 5th grade teacher on Zoom that he got his head shaved because he lost a game of poker with his dad,” said Jackson, trash talking. I kept quiet, sipping Tequila because, well, quarantine. T

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2012 about the drive to win (see below). And for those not yet utterly sick of what I have to say, Ted Seides published a Capital Allocators podcast with stories, markets, outlook: https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2020/04/05/peters/ Wishing you and your families good health, physical, mental. And hoping you make the most of these extraordinary times. See you next Su

  Of all the survival tales written, Into the Land of White Death is the most fascinating. The better-known story is that of Ernest Shackleton, captain of the Endurance, who through inspired leadership and good fortune led his entire crew home safely from a failed 1915 Antarctic expedition. “I have often marveled at the thin line which separates success from failure,” wrote Shackleton, self-aware, a survivor. The sto

Hope all goes well… “Hey, look who it is!” said Jackson, feigning surprise. “Whoa, it’s Dad!” said Charlie, facetious. Teddy and Olivia laughed; it’s become the running joke. Three weeks into isolation, and I see them less and less each day. Up extra early, plans for a long run. Or a ride far north, to clear the head. But the phone buzzes, WhatsApp, Signal, encrypted messaging. Research floods in. The calls. More cal

Hope all goes well… “That’s my ship Dad!” texted Olivia. I’d sent her a story about Mercy, the US Navy’s floating hospital headed for Los Angeles. Mercy, along with her sister ship, Comfort (headed to NYC), care for wartime troops and provide humanitarian aid to developing nations when at peace. One year ago, Olivia decided she’ll someday head to the Naval Academy, study medicine, and serve aboard Mercy – savin

AStarted in Chicago, standing in a pit, 1989. I knew nothing about trading. But other professions seemed boring. Trading appeared to be the ultimate mystery, forever evolving, but with a periodic rhythm, not a random walk. And its masters often stumbled, which meant you need to stay sharp to succeed. And think creatively, abstractly, independently. They said I’d lose less money in corn, so with an economics degree, t

Hope all goes well… “Mask deliveries were all diverted federally this past month,” texted one of America’s leading epidemiologists, on full wartime footing. “Boston and NYC are running out of masks and face shields, leading to spread amongst healthcare workers. Complete supply chain failure, while the president blames others and points to silly cures,” he continued, leading his army, a sight to behold. “This is an Am

“Sneak out and get candles for your brother’s birthday cake,” my mother whispered, I was ten, summer of 1977. The NYC blackout was in its 2nd day. Three successive lightning strikes on various substations caused catastrophic grid failure. When the lights shut off, my mother immediately filled our apartment’s bathtub. Survivor instincts. “That should hold us over for some time,” she said reassuringly. I slipped out th

A“The S&P 500 this week has had two of the largest single-day losses of the twenty worst days in its ninety-four-year history,” wrote the CIO to his investors late Thursday night, his investment and operations team working round the clock, exhilarated, exhausted. “I expect that the Fed has no choice but to act aggressively. They started today with a re-introduction of QE (though they didn’t call it that). The pol