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Hope all goes well… “I’ve been to three meetings, but I couldn’t tell you the club’s name,” confessed Jackson, my 16yr old. “Something to do with battling domestic abuse,” he continued, “The more clubs you have, the better your college app.” Club inflation has arrived, the Phillips curve finally kicked in. “My other club is SADD or something like that.” I asked what it meant. “Students against dumb decisions, or drun

Hope all goes well… “The US is experiencing a remarkably positive set of economic circumstances,” said Jay Powell. “There’s really no reason to think this cycle can’t continue for quite some time,” continued the Fed Chairman. “We’re a long way from neutral Fed Funds at this point, probably.” Unemployment returned to the 1969 low of 3.7%, spurred by an unprecedented late-cycle fiscal stimulus. Q3 earnings are expected

Hope all goes well… “I was trying to preserve the institutional credibility of two institutions,” said Jeff Flake, the Arizona Republican. “One, the Supreme Court is the lone institution where most Americans still have some faith. And then the US Senate as an institution – we’re coming apart at the seams,” continued the Senator, having managed to buy a week for the FBI to investigate the Kavanaugh allegations.

Hope all goes well… “I’m not like the investors you’re meeting here in Sydney,” he said. “I live 40km inland, to the west. My friends and neighbors feel left behind, the elderly struggle to keep the heat on in winter. It’s a different world.” Australia has a new prime minister, its 5th in 5yrs — Scott Morrison is the socially conservative architect of Australia’s hardline anti-asylum seeker policies. “My peers

Hope all goes well… “Just keep swimming, just keep swimming,” said Olivia, my 15yr old, ready to roll. I’d asked what she thinks about during morning laps. “That’s what Dory tells herself, in Finding Nemo,” she explained. I remembered watching that movie with her, years ago, they fly so fast. Another summer gone, back to school. We pulled up to the pool, 5am darkness, cool pre-dawn energy. “What doesn’t kill you make

Hope all goes well… For the last three weeks Lindsay Politi has authored Weekend Notes, exploring the topic of inflation. She wrapped it up today (see below). I’ll be back next Sunday. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China Caixin PMI manu -0.2 to 50.6 (14mth low), China official PMI manu +0.1 to 51.3, Indonesia rupiah 20yr low, Turkey central bank to “adjust monetary stance” in Sept (hin

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next two weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors, managers, and endo

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next few weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors, managers, and endo

We met a large public pension because they were unhappy with their inflation-linked bond performance. I remembered when public pension funds added inflation-linked bonds to their policy portfolios in 2011/12. Around that same time, I was asked to advise a client about TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). They wanted to develop their own version of a risk parity portfolio. They were using historical returns

Hope all goes well…I usually recycle old anecdotes during my August break from writing. But I asked Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, to author Weekend Notes during my hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. Lindsay has spent the last few months speaking to a diverse cross section of institutional in