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Hope all goes well… “Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the re-investments of the sizable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs,” said Mario Draghi, tightening his neck brace and abruptly throwing Europe’s central bank into reverse. Just 2mths after ending 4yrs of quantitative easing, Europe’s central bank

“A bear market followed by a swift recovery doesn’t concern us,” explained the CIO, high atop an Australian money mountain. “What worries us is a decline that’s not followed by a recovery.” We were discussing risks his savers face as they approach retirement. “Even a modest market decline late in their saving years can have a major impact on retirement. In fact, a sideways market would really hurt.” Australian and US

Hope all goes well… “I’m in China every month,” said the CIO, a traveler, well-connected, seasoned, relentless. “And I don’t know,” he said. “The Chinese who move to the US think they know,” he said. “But they don’t.” We were watching Manchester United vs Liverpool, late-night in Singapore. A crowded bar, eclectic mix of East and West. “You Americans and Europeans watch, read, study, and think you know,” he said. “Yo

“A lot of alpha players are out there looking for big footprints,” said Sasquatch, hiding in plain sight, making his way through Manhattan. “You need to invest enormous resource into trade execution,” he explained as we walked, stepping carefully. “If you’re even the slightest bit sloppy, you get eaten alive.” As assets concentrate into a smaller number of hulking managers, funds, ETFs and indexes, the impact of thei

Hope all goes well… “It’s time,” said Mara. The family agreed. Even Teddy, and he counted most, Scarlett was his lovely chicken. She ranked lowest in the coup’s pecking order, had fallen ill, infected, then things got really ugly. The humanitarian moment had arrived. “Well, good luck with that,” I said, motioning to Mara. “Oh no, this is a Daddy job,” she said, the kids nodding. So I grabbed Jackson, a hatchet, shove

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 on what led to today’s growing backlash against inequality, injustice. Enjoy your long weekend. I’m celebrating President’s Day, looking out at Mount Washington with Mara and the crew. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US/China trade talks resume, Chinese stocks hit 4mth highs (had been closed all last week),

Hope all goes well… “I wonder how long before the market internalizes this?” asked the CIO, as much to himself as to me. We were discussing Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which has captured the popular political imagination, as they race to address inequality with a range of new programs, just as the enormity of our government’s mountain of unfunded liabilities comes into view. “It will attenuate the bond-equity correl

A“Surely you remember Bill Simon?” asked the CIO. And I shrugged. “You’ve seen so little,” he said, sighing, frustrated by my youth. “Well, Bill Simon was a Wall Street bond king who became Treasury Secretary under Nixon, when markets were rioting. Treasury feared they’d have a failed bond auction in 1976.” The inflationary process began in the mid-1960s — fueled by a massive tax cut (1964), anemic productivity

Hope all goes well… “What comes next?” We hit levels of inequality last seen in the late-1920s. QE amplified it by inflating asset prices, sparking political upheaval. “So how can QE be the dominant solution to our next downturn?” asked the CIO. The next cycle will bring something new, vast infrastructure spending, direct payments to people, possibly UBI, but funded by what? Budget deficits are already 5%. “Modern Mo

“Schumpeter’s creative destruction no longer applies to America’s economy,” said the pioneer in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). “Our companies do well, expand. Then we have a financial crisis.” Almost always policy-induced. “Companies with the best capital structures survive.” No matter how useful their products are, they’re left standing. “Schumpeter’s creative destruction is where the companies with the best products