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Hope all goes well… “Under the political ecology which is built by the factional rivalries, factional interests are prioritized, and it is hard for the gov’t to focus on the management of the national economy and social development,” wrote China’s credit rating agency, downgrading US gov’t debt from A- to BBB+. “The perennial negative impact of the superstructure on the economic base has continued to deteriorate the

Hope all goes well… Our Santa Barbara team is safe and sound. Thanks for asking. Chase’s parents survived the mud slides, they were ground zero. Somehow their house didn’t collapse. Everything around it did. Their next-door neighbor and close family friend died. He woke his son in the middle of the night to escape but the house collapsed and they were swept away. Holding on to one another. The son awoke 3/4 of a mile

Hope all goes well… “You know the best thing about Jackson jamming Charlie head-first into a snow pile?” asked Teddy, attempting to lighten conversation. The family dinner table shrugged, Charlie’s Chernobyl-red cheeks evaporated his dwindling tears. They’d been shoveling the driveway in the dark. Which is what happens when I come home to discover our kids spent the snow-day doing every conceivable thing other than t

Hope all goes well… “Wow, I got real coal – what did I do wrong this year?” whispered one of my many younger brothers, looking around, laughing, kind of. Our four kiddies noticed but barely cared. A nephew giggled, the room chaotic. Mara and I had hosted yet another family holiday, our home bursting at the seams. And late Christmas Eve with fifteen empty stockings lined up on the hearth, Santa considered the na

Hope all goes well… Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah. To you and your families. Resurrected one of my favorite little memories, an opening note from Christmas past… Christmas Day 2013: “Santa slipped down the chimney. Left big boot prints in the ash that spilled across our hearth. And the jolly fella stuffed stockings. Built a train set too. Sprinkled magic everywhere. Moments before the kiddies emerged, sporting thei

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about oxymorons, from September 2014, at the dawn of a volatility burst. See you again in January with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Bitcoin futures begin trading on CBOE, Saudi Arabia to allow cinemas for 1st time in 35yrs, Russia signs $21bln deal to supply Egypt with 5 gigawatt nuclear reactors, Putin announces Syrian pullout, Turkish Q

Hope all goes well… 11 tons of gold bullion. 173 Bugatti Chiron’s. 1,785 four-year Harvard degrees. 9,384 years of paper pushing for an average Saudi civil servant. 79,250 years of Egyptian labor. 90,000 years of Iraqi labor. 203,340 years of Yemeni labor. 281,250 years of slavish Pakistani labor. 450,000,000 US dollars. Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud considered these monetary equivalents, each identical in value to 2 s

Hope all goes well… “When the smartest guys say we’re ninth inning,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone, “we’re 7th inning, maybe 8th.” The S&P 500 finished November +2.8%, its eighth consecutive monthly gain, a refrain last heard in 2007. Year-to-date the index jumped +18.3%, the forward P/E is 19. Bitcoin popped +1,015% in that time. Market volatility faded to 50yr lows. $8trln of bonds carry negative yields. Inte

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from Thanksgiving 2015 (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Beijing tightens shadow banking regulations, Japan exports -0.1 to +14% (imports +6.9 to +18.9%), German coalition talks fail (Merkel calls new election), US sues to prevent AT&T/Time Warner merger, S&P +0.1%; Tue: Tencent market cap surpasses F

Hope all goes well… “This market will end not in euphoria,” said the CIO. “It will be a cynical end, with investors publicly expressing their concern about valuations, while carrying maximum risk in their portfolios.” Hedge fund net long positioning just hit 11yr highs, along with so many extended barometers. “The shadow of 2008 still hangs over the industry. No one wants to sound overly optimistic.” Current valuatio