Category

Hope all goes well… “Understanding 2017 performance is simple,” said the investor. “There are two distinct groups,” he continued. “Managers trading the turn and managers riding the wave.” Professional investors all acknowledge we’re late cycle. But we differ on where late-cycle meets land’s-end. “Most managers have been trading the turn this year, while a few are giving the market more time – mostly emerging market g

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about taking shots (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Happy 4th of July! Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Italian E17bln bailout of 2 banks, EU iTraxx financials 51bps (below EU corporates at 53bps for 1st time since 2011), UK conservatives strike deal with DUP, UK consumer credit growth decelerates, German business confidence recor

Hope all goes well… I am two-hundred years old. I’ve never repaid my debts. In fact, I’ve defaulted eight times, most recently in 2002. No, I’m not Donald Trump. But I did just borrow $2.75bln for 100yrs from folks who manage other people’s retirement savings for a living. None of these investors will be alive at maturity, nor have the people who repay this debt been born yet. There’s no chance they’ll repay this. Bu

Hope all goes well… “I got another one of those questions that you can’t answer Mommy,” said Charlie, buckled in the backseat. “Let’s call Sitaprana,” suggested Mara, dialing our spiritual go-to, Vedanta nun – a California connection. “Hi Charlie, what’s up?” asked Sita. “Well, I’m wondering what heaven looks like?” he asked, earnest. Without pause, she answered, “Close your eyes, look within, you’ll see it.” Charlie

Hope all goes well… “That’s right, we need a TRAVEL BAN for certain DANGEROUS countries, not some politically correct term that won’t help us protect our people!,” tweeted Trump, following the London attack. “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar – look!,” continued our Commander in Chief, the GCC unravelin

Hope all goes well… “Can we keep these tadpoles Daddy?” asked Charlie and Teddy. I shook my head, paternal reflex. “We already have two turtles and a bullfrog. So why not?” they pleaded, forgetting our countless other pets. And in their defense, once you expand a balance sheet past the point of absurd, why ever stop? But having lost virtually every such battle waged in recent years, I grasped for a straw. “Their momm

Hope all goes well… Dusted on an anecdote from 2015 for Memorial Day (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: IS terror attack kills 22 in UK, Portugal deficit less than 3% limit (only France, Spain and Greece exceed 3% threshold compared to 24 countries 6yrs ago), Fed’s Kaplan targeting 2 more hikes in 2017, S&P +0.5%; Tue: Japan PMI -0.7 to 52.0 (6mth

Hope all goes well… “If you had only one wish Daddy, what would it be?” asked Charlie. A quick jump to 5.00% ten-year treasury yields came to mind. “I’d ask that you four kiddies have fascinating lives.” Teddy was first responder, “Seriously Dad? Of all the possibilities in the entire world, that’s the best you could wish for? How about curing every disease? How about Kim Jong-un giving up all his nukes?” Charlie fol

Hope all goes well… “We were Dr. McDowell’s chosen five,” said the professor of medicine, proud, struggling to maintain his composure. And Fetcher McDowell’s four other protégés raised their hands, standing amongst us, paying respects to a man who had touched us all in different ways. As one person spoke after another, the tapestry of a life well-lived took shape, its many threads connected in ways that richened the

Overall: “Macron appeals to people’s hopes and not their fears,” said Obama, hoping for another $400,000 speaking engagement from some insolvent French bank. Obviously, Obama endorsed the articulate young man, long on idealism, short on experience. The two are sides of a coin. And just as Obama would have trounced both Hillary and Trump if he’d been granted a 3rd crack, so too would Macron have beaten Hillary and Tru