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Hope all goes well… “Never short markets that are rising for reasons unknown,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “And don’t buy markets that are falling without explanation,” he continued, looking out across open landscape, snowfields shrouding the jagged terrain in mystery. “There is no more powerful force than the unknown.” Our seven-year equity rally has lacked a story to ignite imaginations, passions. Caution has p

Hope all goes well… Snuck up to The White Mountains. To get a little altitude, read a couple books, and ski some New Hampshire Blue with Mara and the kiddies. “I can’t ski this, I can’t slide this, you must be freakin’ joking here, I’m gonna die!” screamed Teddy, 20 yards above me on the trail, frozen atop a solid blue waterfall, perfectly placed in the middle of an intermediate trail. “You think he’ll really die?” w

Hope all goes well… Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. To you and your families. Resurrected this opening from my note on Christmas day 2013… “Santa slipped down the chimney. Left big boot prints in the ash, that spilled across our hearth. And the jolly fella stuffed stockings. Built a train set too. Sprinkled magic everywhere. Moments before the kiddies emerged, sporting their finest bedhead, Santa lit candles. Warmin

Hope all goes well… “No one has real risk on,” said the CIO, dizzy. “We’ve all been through the laundromat.” Equity long/short managers owned all the wrong stocks. And held the wrong shorts. “We got tumbled.” But they’re not selling their darlings like Facebook, Google, and Amazon. In fact, they love those stocks even more at these prices. “The reflation names we were short we now want to buy.” Financials, infrastruc

Hope all goes well… “Monkey see, monkey do,” said the CIO to himself, picking something small from his buddy’s scalp. “I’ve never pretended to be anything other than what I am,” he mumbled. “That’s the only way to survive in this jungle,” he thought, grabbing a vine with his left foot. “What’s overbought today becomes more so tomorrow.” He paused, not sure what that even means, but enjoying the sound of it. “I don’t

Hope all goes well… “Want the good news or the bad news Daddy?” asked Teddy, eleven, sad. I braced myself, sizing up the situation. He’s too young to own bank stocks, and wouldn’t know how to short crude oil. “Gimme the good news first my little man,” I said. “The clouds parted and a ray of sunlight shone through when I buried Lundy – I think he went to heaven,” said Teddy, tears rolling. I bit my lip, suppressing a

Hope all goes well… And that you had a great Thanksgiving. Dusted off an anecdote from 2014 about confidence, trust (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: South Korea’s Park moves toward impeachment, EU inflation expectations 11mth high, May acknowledges “UK businesses need Brexit clarity,” France foils terror attack, Sarkozy knocked out of French primary

Hope all goes well… “This is the anaconda trade,” said Bulldog, panting, eyes bulging. The Trump trade caught most everyone off-sides. The only question is how to get back on track. Of course, you can go with these new trends, haunted by the risk of reversal. You can hold tight, praying that the world has not changed, despite all evidence to the contrary. Or you can try and trade your way out of it. “Every little mov

Hope all goes well… “It’s like Kuroda replacing Shirakawa at the Bank of Japan,” he said. “Or Draghi replacing Trichet at the European Central Bank,” he continued. “It’s that kind of philosophical shift, but on a far larger scale.” Kuroda stemmed Japan’s multi-decade deflation, and Draghi saved the EU from economic collapse. But America’s $18trln economy is growing near potential at 1.6%, just 4.9% of workers remain

Hope all goes well… “Markets are most dangerous when they’re extremely overbought and oversold,” said Yoda high in the Rockies, the jagged landscape freshly dusted. “The most probable risk is always a sharp reversal,” he said, looking far into the distance, back in time, so many patterns. “That’s why it’s this outcome that they experience most often – it’s this risk they most fear.” Yoda paused, the decades swi