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Hope all goes well… “We’re in the zone of a turning point,” said Eagle, soaring high above Gotham. Far below, countless little creatures starved for yield, scurrying after crumbs, panicked. Eagle recalled the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the ensuing Yen rally, Nikkei decline, Japan’s existential crisis. Followed by Abe’s 2012 election, the market’s explosive reversal. “I don’t yet see the bond market’s equivalent of the

Hope all goes well… “I can’t call it the ‘Stop Trump Rally’ but that’s what it is,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of those too big to fail affairs. “Brexit has these people saying — Jesus, we’re screwed, so let’s hike their minimum wages, cut taxes, build infrastructure, let ’em eat cake,” barked Biggie. “Of course you don’t solve a debt problem with more debt; mo money, mo problems

Hope all goes well… “The poor are angry,” said the CIO. “The rich are angry too,” he continued. “Both feel manipulated by politicians and policy makers.” The last bond vigilante cried out in agony. Equity bears groaned in the distance. As the power of negative interest rates rippled across the globe. “We all feel manipulated, everyone sees injustice.” But computers don’t feel injustice, they don’t care, they ride tre

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about unconventional policies from Feb 2015 (see below). Happy Fourth. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Renminbi hits new lows, Israel/Turkey restore full diplomatic relations, EU M3 +0.3 to +4.9%, Spain’s People’s Party (Rajoy) wins 33% of votes, Italy wage growth record lows, BIS warns of “risky trinity” of hi

Hope all goes well… “What does it mean to leave the EU?” was Google UK’s top EU-related question following the Brexit vote. “What is the EU?” was the 2nd most popular. “Which countries are in the EU?” ranked 3rd. “What will happen now that we’ve left the EU?” came in 4th, though it should’ve been 1st. And when I typed “Why” into Google, of the infinite potential auto-fills, it selected “Brexit?” as my 1st choice, “di

Hope all goes well… “Japanese stocks are down 25% from last year’s peak,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “If our market fell 25% we’d be jumping out of buses – which is what we’d be riding.” Gulfstream G6s blinked overhead, filling the skies, Aspen fire flies. “Savers have been forced into so many risky investments,” he said, a warm mountain breeze appeared from nowhere, then vanished. “And now the S&P 500

Hope all goes well… “Gambling websites say Brexit’s a 3-1 bet against,” said the CIO. “And if you polled every one of us who wager for a living, I reckon 90% would say the Brits Bremain.” I mooed in agreement, nose nestled in tail, huddled in the herd. He mooed back. “But the polls are 50/50, margin-of-error kind of stuff, and they were pretty good in the Scottish referendum, the London mayoral vote too.” Brexit woul

Hope all goes well… “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” he cried, atop a prodigious pile of private equity. “You hear that cry at the highs of every cycle, when the feeding frenzy gives guys like me the chance to sell our overleveraged deals, our walking dead,” he continued, dizzy from so many turns. And on alert for such a sign, he paused, hearing distant cries, moans, groans. But with the US non-farm payrol

Hope all goes well… “Tough day little man?” I asked Charlie, kicking off family dinner. He looked at me, puzzled. “Your hair’s turned grey, seems premature, you’re six.” The table erupted. Jackson, Olivia, unable to contain their laughter. Teddy pounded the table, howling. Mara and I looked at one another, confused. And there sat Charlie, quiet, a sly smile. “Ok Teddy, so what happened today?” Tears rolled, sno

Hope all goes well… “The market is not positioned for a big move to the upside,” said Roadrunner, the industry’s biggest equity vol trader. “We’ve seen massive volume in options, someone’s selling skew, distorting volatility in way you almost never see.” The consequence is option traders are heavily short futures. On weakness they buy. On a strong rally, they’ll scramble to cover. “If volatility picks up as the S&