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Hope all goes well… Bob Dylan, Nobel Prize winner, artist, mirror. Ballad of a Thin Man: You walk into the room, With your pencil in your hand. You see somebody naked, And you say, “Who is that man?” You try so hard, But you don’t understand. Just what you’ll say, When you get home. Because something is happening here, But you don’t know what it is. Do you, Mister Jones? You raise up your head, And you ask, “Is

Hope all goes well… “They can do anything these days,” said Charlie, seven. “Can they take your eyeballs out and replace them with robot eyes that see a million times better?” asked Teddy, eleven, hopeful. “They can turn a boy into a girl,” said Olivia, thirteen. “But they haven’t figured out how to turn a girl into a boy yet,” countered Teddy. “I have two transgender kids in my class, they’re brother and sister,” sa

Hope all goes well… “You’re an American so you’ve read Atlas Shrugged,” said the investor. We sat looking out across Johannesburg, fragrant, hazy. “When you read that book you can’t imagine such things could really occur,” he continued. “You think they’re exaggerated stories, told to make a point. But when I pick up the papers and read today’s stories, they’re taken straight from Atlas Shrugged.” Mo

Hope all goes well… “I’m a clever money maker, always have been,” said the CIO. “My father taught me well,” he continued. “And if you forced me to put my own money to work, there’d be only a few things to do.” Small idiosyncratic opportunities. “You couldn’t pay me to give my money to an equity manger.” Nor a credit manager. “No single sector gets me excited. There’s no major asset class that I would invest in.” And

Hope all goes well… “You must fade any meaningful rise in real interest rates,” said the CIO. “While dodging those moments when either politics or philosophy interrupt this trend.” German politicians punished the PIIGS for being profligate. But when soaring real rates threatened the union, they agreed to do whatever it takes. The Fed is hiking to provide room to cut, it’s a bizarre, flawed philosophical construct. “I

Hope all goes well… “Kimberly Clark fell 3.25% on Thurs/Fri, that’s more than one year’s worth of dividends, up in smoke in just two trading days,” said the CIO. “Kinder Morgan fell 2.5%, also more than the annual dividend.” The DJ Utility index fell 3.4%, that’s equal to one-year’s dividend. Apple’s 4.8% two-day decline exceeded two year’s of dividend payments. “And for those who own bonds to protect their equity po

Hope all goes well… “The Fed faces the choice between allowing a US bubble to form and blowing up the world,” said the CIO. “And they’re trying to have it both ways.” No one likes facing a dilemma, particularly PhD’s. They’re too smart. “US banks have deleveraged, corporates too. Households deleveraged and the government took on that debt.” America is inoculated from deflation relative to the rest of the world; we’re

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 that’s worth a repeat in the context of promising political dynamics in South Africa, Brazil, India and Argentina (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: S&P maintains negative HK outlook, India appoints Urjit Patel central bank governor (inflation haw

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 about quantum transformation (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: Japan GDP +0.2% (exp +0.7%) IP -1.5%, 10yr Gilt yield record low 0.50%, US declares Puerto Rico Zika health emergency, US Empire manufacturing survey -4.8 to -4.2%, S&P +0.3%;

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from late-2014 about market melt-ups (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: China exports +2.9% (imports -5.7%), China 10yr yield 2.7% record low, iron ore prices hit 2yr high, OPEC to hold informal Sept meeting, Italy high court approves Renzi constitutional refer