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Hope all goes well… “Markets provide no explanations,” said Yoda, basking in St. Barts. “They provide prices.” Yoda walked the remote beach, waves advancing lightly up the sand, leaving small traces at each apex. “Illiquid things are impossible to sell when markets decline, so people hedge their risks with whatever they can.” S&P 500 futures, the Russell, ETFs, indexes. “When markets turn higher, these hedges adv

Anecdote: Iran’s hardliners were savaged. Reformers and moderates dominated elections. The theocratic revolution ageing, tiring, falling victim to time. Yielding to youth. Unleashing Persia’s potential, promise. The pendulum. Mao’s revolution in reverse, comrades stealing from comrades on a scale unimaginable. Chinese communists arrested 9,000 fraudsters; another week, another roundup. Beijing desperate to restore ci

Hope all goes well… “Bottom line is we basically accept things are gonna get tougher,” said the CIO, Down Under. “Hence the pessimism,” he continued, surveying the distant horizon from a superannuation summit. The world’s great fortunes have all been built by unabashed bulls. Australia’s no exception. “As you know, necessity is the mother of invention and we’ll ultimately pull through with flying colors.” Despite tod

Hope all goes well… “So here’s the question,” said the CIO, “Is pouring over balance sheets, or knowing when to pour over balance sheets, the most important thing?” I considered the profound struggle of so many legendary stock pickers that began just as the age of central bank omnipotence drew to a close. “It’s the latter,” he said, uninstalling Excel, waiting patiently for dislocations to buy, short-covering rallies

“A marketing decision!” cried the FBI, furious with America’s greatest marketer. Of course the Bureau’s right. Apple’s decision to withhold an encryption key is all about pushing product. Tim Cook doesn’t love terrorists, he just hates missing sales forecasts. He knows we all hate being spied on, even though we love feeling safe. So we distrust those who protect us, up until we face a crisis. When it all reverses, an

Hope all goes well… “Do we now know?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “Is this where QE leads?” he whispered, gazing at distant peaks, summit winds lifting their white, painting the blue. Then vanishing. “Is folly not beautiful too?” he asked, closing his eyes, growing quiet. I considered this historic ascent, led upward by so much central banking novelty. But with European stocks now 28% below their highs (17% belo

Hope all goes well… “If you got through Jan unscathed it’ll be a great year,” said Roadrunner. “Markets will really move around, there’s going to be lots to do,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But guys who got hurt are trapped.” He stepped calmly aside, dodging an anvil. “They’ll be chasing this thing up and down, trying to get back to even.” Last January’s Swiss franc trap bagged a handful

Hope all goes well… “I’m just going to warm them up in my mouth,” said Charlie, blanketed in his first blizzard, cheeks red, cramming ten fingers into his gob. “Works great,” I think he said, but can’t be certain. He’d insisted pajama bottoms were plenty warm for sledding. Why bother arguing? He declined my offer of mittens. I smiled, shrugged, happy to let him learn. Wolfie and Shackleton bounded, tails wagging, cha

Hope all goes well… “Capital preservation time,” whispered Vice, sitting on his chair, atop the world’s highest heap of private wealth management moolah. “Advisors are fighting back tears.” The S&P 500 closed last year -0.8%, supported by a handful of big stocks. But diversified portfolios were down closer to 5%. Then the S&P fell 8% in 2 weeks. “For three years clients bought every dip. Then they bought the

Hope all goes well… “Was work ok today?” asked Olivia, my 12yr old. “Good day, why do you ask?” I replied. “Well, for one, Chinese stocks went nuts,” she said. “How’d you know that?” I laughed, stunned, Greenwich. “Homeroom. We listen to news.” So I asked what else? “Brazil has a new disease carried by mosquitos that causes birth defects.” When it rains it pours. “The fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia got worse. Th