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Hope all goes well… “Kimberly Clark fell 3.25% on Thurs/Fri, that’s more than one year’s worth of dividends, up in smoke in just two trading days,” said the CIO. “Kinder Morgan fell 2.5%, also more than the annual dividend.” The DJ Utility index fell 3.4%, that’s equal to one-year’s dividend. Apple’s 4.8% two-day decline exceeded two year’s of dividend payments. “And for those who own bonds to protect their equity po

Hope all goes well… “The Fed faces the choice between allowing a US bubble to form and blowing up the world,” said the CIO. “And they’re trying to have it both ways.” No one likes facing a dilemma, particularly PhD’s. They’re too smart. “US banks have deleveraged, corporates too. Households deleveraged and the government took on that debt.” America is inoculated from deflation relative to the rest of the world; we’re

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 that’s worth a repeat in the context of promising political dynamics in South Africa, Brazil, India and Argentina (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: S&P maintains negative HK outlook, India appoints Urjit Patel central bank governor (inflation haw

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 about quantum transformation (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: Japan GDP +0.2% (exp +0.7%) IP -1.5%, 10yr Gilt yield record low 0.50%, US declares Puerto Rico Zika health emergency, US Empire manufacturing survey -4.8 to -4.2%, S&P +0.3%;

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from late-2014 about market melt-ups (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: China exports +2.9% (imports -5.7%), China 10yr yield 2.7% record low, iron ore prices hit 2yr high, OPEC to hold informal Sept meeting, Italy high court approves Renzi constitutional refer

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about trading (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: China PMI +2.0 to 50.6, Japan PMI +1.2 to 49.3 (sub-50 for 5th mth), Abe aide Hamada favors proclaiming debt monetization policy (JGB yields surge), Aussie CPI -0.5 to +1.0% (home sales +1.0%), India PMI +0.1 to

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about climbing mountains from 2011 (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Japanese trade surplus surges (exports fall for 9th mth, imports fall for 18th mth), Bank of Israel hold rates at 0.1% (cites Brexit risks), UK biz confidence hits post-GFC lows, German business confidence jumps,

Hope all goes well… “We’re in the zone of a turning point,” said Eagle, soaring high above Gotham. Far below, countless little creatures starved for yield, scurrying after crumbs, panicked. Eagle recalled the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the ensuing Yen rally, Nikkei decline, Japan’s existential crisis. Followed by Abe’s 2012 election, the market’s explosive reversal. “I don’t yet see the bond market’s equivalent of the

Hope all goes well… “I can’t call it the ‘Stop Trump Rally’ but that’s what it is,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of those too big to fail affairs. “Brexit has these people saying — Jesus, we’re screwed, so let’s hike their minimum wages, cut taxes, build infrastructure, let ’em eat cake,” barked Biggie. “Of course you don’t solve a debt problem with more debt; mo money, mo problems

Hope all goes well… “The poor are angry,” said the CIO. “The rich are angry too,” he continued. “Both feel manipulated by politicians and policy makers.” The last bond vigilante cried out in agony. Equity bears groaned in the distance. As the power of negative interest rates rippled across the globe. “We all feel manipulated, everyone sees injustice.” But computers don’t feel injustice, they don’t care, they ride tre