Hope all goes well… Wishing you and your crew a fantastic 2016. Health, adventure, discovery, prosperity. Dusted off the only anecdote I never submitted to my Editor (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China industrial profits -1.4% (prev -4.6%), Japan retail sales -1.0% (IP +1.6%), Japan/Korea reach wartime “comfort women” accord, Iraqi forces recapture Ramadi, Saudi’s announce r
Hope all goes well… Dug up an old anecdote about magic (see below). Back Jan 10th with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Spain’s ruling conservatives lose parliamentary majority, German PPI -2.5%, Swiss M3 +2.7% (10mth high), EU consumer confidence weakens (Swedish jumps), Barbosa replaces Levy as Brazil Fin Min, Mexico retail sales +4.8%, Brent hits 11yr low ($36.05), SpaceX successfully lands 1st reusable ro
Hope all goes well… “Check the closets, under the beds, check every single hiding place,” ordered Teddy, tip toeing upstairs. “Here’s the thing Charlie, if we find presents, then there’s no Santa. And if we don’t, then we’ll know for sure he’s real,” continued my 10yr old, shaken by playground rumors, but still desperate to believe. Jackson overheard it all, and sprang to action, distracting Dumb and Dumber just long
Hope all goes well… “You want to know the most interesting thing about next year?” asked Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s too big to fail affairs. I shook my head no. “They sent Biggie on a one-month global tour, put him on stage a hundred times; pensions, insurers, sovereigns, hedge funds, all the hustlers,” he boasted in baritone, flipping to third person. “And the most interesting thing
Hope all goes well… “Tough to get a good feel for where to next,” said Road Runner, wrapping up a record year. “But not many bulls up here, the recent sell-off wasn’t too uncomfortable, it’s still easier to be long stock,” continued the market’s top volatility trader. “I see a trap setting up for the market to sell off in Feb or March, but you can’t be too early for these things,” said the elusive bird, looking left,
Hope all goes well… Family formed a semi-circle, to witness the spectacle. I squatted behind the laundry machine, wrench in hand, more focused on the gushing leak than my plumbers crack. It all started back in August, when I was too focused on Xi Jinping to consider Thanksgiving. Mara invited 40 family members to stay for three days, and claims I agreed it was a good idea. Which best I can tell is how I ended up with
Hope all goes well… “You know me,” said Simplicity, considering Occam’s razor. “This game is not about completing puzzles, it’s about finding pieces,” continued the CIO, leaning over to pick up this year’s last. “I know so little about so much,” he said, and paused for a moment, examining the contours of what he held. “But the Fed will hike while the ECB cuts rates in December, so the Euro will fall until then.” And
Hope all goes well… Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more questions than answers. Back
Hope all goes well… “Turn to page 67,” said Wall Street’s top US equity volatility strategist, something no kid in his right mind could’ve ever dreamed of becoming. But there we were, examining his volatility-cluster chart going back to 1932. You see, when volatility jumps, it either stays elevated for a while, forming a large cluster of high readings, or it falls swiftly leaving small clusters. Since 2005, for reaso
Hope all goes well… “How’d it go out there?” I asked Teddy, my third. He’d been playing lacrosse. And just dropped three passes in a row. But what he lacks in hand eye, he makes up for in attitude. Which is probably why his coaches keep him in. And while I can’t fathom that lacrosse is his thing, that’s really a question for him to answer. Something about himself to discover. “It was amazing Dad,” he exclaimed, eyes