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Hope all goes well… “August was a trap,” said Roadrunner, looking left and right. “Almost a mirage,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But something tells me it was like Bear Stearns in the summer of 2007.” Having sold vol heavily into the August panic, he’s just now reversing his book. “Buying some vol here, small though, we haven’t seen the capitulation.” VIX calls still trade at large premi

Hope all goes well… “So you must tell me, are all of them real?” asked the Dane. “Yoda, Roadrunner, Bulldog, all the others, every one of them, they’re real,” I answered, flattered he might think so many lively characters could swirl within one imagination. “Then I guess, the true question becomes what is real?” he said, playing. I smiled, “Indeed, that’s the most interesting question of all.” Overall: “In key areas

Hope all goes well… “Healthcare tanks, some names fall 40%,” said the CIO, breathless. “Materials and energy rip higher,” he continued. “You’re short emerging markets, long developed markets, your whole book is upside down.” Everything that could go wrong is. “It has to wash its way through the market, which pushes others to cover.” People question themselves, their Fed view, China, commodities, the dollar. “Some gro

Hope all goes well… We rode bikes in the dark. Our paths weaving along the dead-end, six moon-shadows in hot pursuit. The eclipse had begun. Another tick of the celestial clock. We made our way to a little patch of grass, jutting out into Long Island Sound. Laid down, stared up. “The Big Dipper! Orion’s Belt! An Elephant! An Octopus! See the Giraffe?” A harvest moon, blood red. A little family, spinning in heaven. Ov

Hope all goes well… “My propensity to save is extremely high,” he said. “Why do I want all this money?” he asked, rhetorically. “Don’t really know, but I just do, I want more.” I listened, smiling. “Maybe that’s because I’m worried.” We all have problems, but money couldn’t possibly be one of his. “I’m worried all the other money I’ve saved will disappear in a crisis.” He paused, laughed at the irony of this circular

Hope all goes well… “Don’t know what this all means,” grunted Bulldog, following the ultra-dovish Fed announcement, eyeing the S&P sell-off. “But it’s a whole lot of not-good.” We discussed scenarios for long-term bond yields. The possibility of steeper curves, as global central bankers are forced into more aggressive accommodation. If bond yields remain low, things should be fine. “But if long-term yields start

Hope all goes well… “For years it has taken three weeks for the market to fall, and three days to recover,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies, pausing, considering the great ascent from 2009’s spike low to 2015’s choppy consolidation. “Now is the time to tune in, ignore the news, the noise,” whispered the market’s biggest S&P local. “Look at the chart, consider the behavior.” The S&P 500 fell 10.5% in three days

Hope all goes well… “The last time vol traded this way was Aug/Sep 2011,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. But when markets get like this, treasuries rally and their implied volatility jumps too. “Bond vol was offered all week, it’s the one thing that doesn’t make sense, it tells a different story,” continued the clever bird, glancing left, right, up. “If bond vol fails to jump this wee

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote about the end of every cycle (see below). See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.2

Hope all goes well… Markets sprang to life. So I dusted off an anecdote on impatience, timing and dragons (see below). Back in Sept with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC chief economist “expect 2-way CNY price action,” Japan Q2 GDP -1.6% yoy (first fall in 3 qrtrs), Saudi Arabia non-oil exports -21.1% yoy (record low), Russia IP -4.7% yoy, Turkish nationalists reject Erodgan’s coalition plan (unemploymen