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Hope all goes well… “You know me,” said Simplicity, considering Occam’s razor. “This game is not about completing puzzles, it’s about finding pieces,” continued the CIO, leaning over to pick up this year’s last. “I know so little about so much,” he said, and paused for a moment, examining the contours of what he held. “But the Fed will hike while the ECB cuts rates in December, so the Euro will fall until then.” And

Hope all goes well… Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more questions than answers. Back

Hope all goes well… “Turn to page 67,” said Wall Street’s top US equity volatility strategist, something no kid in his right mind could’ve ever dreamed of becoming. But there we were, examining his volatility-cluster chart going back to 1932. You see, when volatility jumps, it either stays elevated for a while, forming a large cluster of high readings, or it falls swiftly leaving small clusters. Since 2005, for reaso

Hope all goes well… “How’d it go out there?” I asked Teddy, my third. He’d been playing lacrosse. And just dropped three passes in a row. But what he lacks in hand eye, he makes up for in attitude. Which is probably why his coaches keep him in. And while I can’t fathom that lacrosse is his thing, that’s really a question for him to answer. Something about himself to discover. “It was amazing Dad,” he exclaimed, eyes

Hope all goes well… “August was a trap,” said Roadrunner, looking left and right. “Almost a mirage,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But something tells me it was like Bear Stearns in the summer of 2007.” Having sold vol heavily into the August panic, he’s just now reversing his book. “Buying some vol here, small though, we haven’t seen the capitulation.” VIX calls still trade at large premi

Hope all goes well… “So you must tell me, are all of them real?” asked the Dane. “Yoda, Roadrunner, Bulldog, all the others, every one of them, they’re real,” I answered, flattered he might think so many lively characters could swirl within one imagination. “Then I guess, the true question becomes what is real?” he said, playing. I smiled, “Indeed, that’s the most interesting question of all.” Overall: “In key areas

Hope all goes well… “Healthcare tanks, some names fall 40%,” said the CIO, breathless. “Materials and energy rip higher,” he continued. “You’re short emerging markets, long developed markets, your whole book is upside down.” Everything that could go wrong is. “It has to wash its way through the market, which pushes others to cover.” People question themselves, their Fed view, China, commodities, the dollar. “Some gro

Hope all goes well… We rode bikes in the dark. Our paths weaving along the dead-end, six moon-shadows in hot pursuit. The eclipse had begun. Another tick of the celestial clock. We made our way to a little patch of grass, jutting out into Long Island Sound. Laid down, stared up. “The Big Dipper! Orion’s Belt! An Elephant! An Octopus! See the Giraffe?” A harvest moon, blood red. A little family, spinning in heaven. Ov

Hope all goes well… “My propensity to save is extremely high,” he said. “Why do I want all this money?” he asked, rhetorically. “Don’t really know, but I just do, I want more.” I listened, smiling. “Maybe that’s because I’m worried.” We all have problems, but money couldn’t possibly be one of his. “I’m worried all the other money I’ve saved will disappear in a crisis.” He paused, laughed at the irony of this circular

Hope all goes well… “Don’t know what this all means,” grunted Bulldog, following the ultra-dovish Fed announcement, eyeing the S&P sell-off. “But it’s a whole lot of not-good.” We discussed scenarios for long-term bond yields. The possibility of steeper curves, as global central bankers are forced into more aggressive accommodation. If bond yields remain low, things should be fine. “But if long-term yields start