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Hope all goes well… “You want to know the most interesting thing about next year?” asked Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s too big to fail affairs. I shook my head no. “They sent Biggie on a one-month global tour, put him on stage a hundred times; pensions, insurers, sovereigns, hedge funds, all the hustlers,” he boasted in baritone, flipping to third person. “And the most interesting thing

Hope all goes well… “Tough to get a good feel for where to next,” said Road Runner, wrapping up a record year. “But not many bulls up here, the recent sell-off wasn’t too uncomfortable, it’s still easier to be long stock,” continued the market’s top volatility trader. “I see a trap setting up for the market to sell off in Feb or March, but you can’t be too early for these things,” said the elusive bird, looking left,

Hope all goes well… Family formed a semi-circle, to witness the spectacle. I squatted behind the laundry machine, wrench in hand, more focused on the gushing leak than my plumbers crack. It all started back in August, when I was too focused on Xi Jinping to consider Thanksgiving. Mara invited 40 family members to stay for three days, and claims I agreed it was a good idea. Which best I can tell is how I ended up with

Hope all goes well… “You know me,” said Simplicity, considering Occam’s razor. “This game is not about completing puzzles, it’s about finding pieces,” continued the CIO, leaning over to pick up this year’s last. “I know so little about so much,” he said, and paused for a moment, examining the contours of what he held. “But the Fed will hike while the ECB cuts rates in December, so the Euro will fall until then.” And

Hope all goes well… Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more questions than answers. Back

Hope all goes well… “Turn to page 67,” said Wall Street’s top US equity volatility strategist, something no kid in his right mind could’ve ever dreamed of becoming. But there we were, examining his volatility-cluster chart going back to 1932. You see, when volatility jumps, it either stays elevated for a while, forming a large cluster of high readings, or it falls swiftly leaving small clusters. Since 2005, for reaso

Hope all goes well… “How’d it go out there?” I asked Teddy, my third. He’d been playing lacrosse. And just dropped three passes in a row. But what he lacks in hand eye, he makes up for in attitude. Which is probably why his coaches keep him in. And while I can’t fathom that lacrosse is his thing, that’s really a question for him to answer. Something about himself to discover. “It was amazing Dad,” he exclaimed, eyes

Hope all goes well… “August was a trap,” said Roadrunner, looking left and right. “Almost a mirage,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But something tells me it was like Bear Stearns in the summer of 2007.” Having sold vol heavily into the August panic, he’s just now reversing his book. “Buying some vol here, small though, we haven’t seen the capitulation.” VIX calls still trade at large premi

Hope all goes well… “So you must tell me, are all of them real?” asked the Dane. “Yoda, Roadrunner, Bulldog, all the others, every one of them, they’re real,” I answered, flattered he might think so many lively characters could swirl within one imagination. “Then I guess, the true question becomes what is real?” he said, playing. I smiled, “Indeed, that’s the most interesting question of all.” Overall: “In key areas

Hope all goes well… “Healthcare tanks, some names fall 40%,” said the CIO, breathless. “Materials and energy rip higher,” he continued. “You’re short emerging markets, long developed markets, your whole book is upside down.” Everything that could go wrong is. “It has to wash its way through the market, which pushes others to cover.” People question themselves, their Fed view, China, commodities, the dollar. “Some gro