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Hope all goes well… We rode bikes in the dark. Our paths weaving along the dead-end, six moon-shadows in hot pursuit. The eclipse had begun. Another tick of the celestial clock. We made our way to a little patch of grass, jutting out into Long Island Sound. Laid down, stared up. “The Big Dipper! Orion’s Belt! An Elephant! An Octopus! See the Giraffe?” A harvest moon, blood red. A little family, spinning in heaven. Ov

Hope all goes well… “My propensity to save is extremely high,” he said. “Why do I want all this money?” he asked, rhetorically. “Don’t really know, but I just do, I want more.” I listened, smiling. “Maybe that’s because I’m worried.” We all have problems, but money couldn’t possibly be one of his. “I’m worried all the other money I’ve saved will disappear in a crisis.” He paused, laughed at the irony of this circular

Hope all goes well… “Don’t know what this all means,” grunted Bulldog, following the ultra-dovish Fed announcement, eyeing the S&P sell-off. “But it’s a whole lot of not-good.” We discussed scenarios for long-term bond yields. The possibility of steeper curves, as global central bankers are forced into more aggressive accommodation. If bond yields remain low, things should be fine. “But if long-term yields start

Hope all goes well… “For years it has taken three weeks for the market to fall, and three days to recover,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies, pausing, considering the great ascent from 2009’s spike low to 2015’s choppy consolidation. “Now is the time to tune in, ignore the news, the noise,” whispered the market’s biggest S&P local. “Look at the chart, consider the behavior.” The S&P 500 fell 10.5% in three days

Hope all goes well… “The last time vol traded this way was Aug/Sep 2011,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. But when markets get like this, treasuries rally and their implied volatility jumps too. “Bond vol was offered all week, it’s the one thing that doesn’t make sense, it tells a different story,” continued the clever bird, glancing left, right, up. “If bond vol fails to jump this wee

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote about the end of every cycle (see below). See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Global equity markets plunge (VIX trades above 50), North and South Korea arrive at peace agreement, Singapore CPI -0.4% yoy, Taiwan IP -3.0% yoy, South African Rand flash crash, Lockhart “appropriate to raise rates this year,” Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.34 (exp 0.2

Hope all goes well… Markets sprang to life. So I dusted off an anecdote on impatience, timing and dragons (see below). Back in Sept with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: PBOC chief economist “expect 2-way CNY price action,” Japan Q2 GDP -1.6% yoy (first fall in 3 qrtrs), Saudi Arabia non-oil exports -21.1% yoy (record low), Russia IP -4.7% yoy, Turkish nationalists reject Erodgan’s coalition plan (unemploymen

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote on China (see below). See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Chinese exports -8.3% yoy (CPI +1.6%), Japan current account surplus for 12th mth (consumer confidence -1.4 to 40.3), Sweden industrial orders +11.8% (strongest since 2011), Norway CPI +1.8% yoy (lowest since May 2014), Russian Q2 GDP -4.6% (car sales -27% yoy), Mexican wage gr

Hope all goes well… “You need to go to the bank,” ordered Ida, in her trademark General Patton. “Take out $3,600 of cash to cover your apartments and guides in Rome and Florence,” she continued, in a tone that warned: don’t you dare screw this up, land in Europe without enough ammo, and radio for a rescue. “Ida, that’s ridiculous, surely they take credit cards, it’s Italy not Ethiopia.” But apparently it’s headed tha

Hope all goes well… “I meant to do that,” said Osama bin Charlie, blushing, picking himself up off the ground. His bike lay there, tire spinning. Knee red, skinned. Determined not to cry, he lifted it, proud. In a flash, I recalled a day a 40yrs ago, a bike wreck, and the pride of picking myself up. First of my many falls. “Of course you meant to, little man.” And on we rode, the two of us. Overall: Mullah Omar died,