Category

Hope all goes well… “She asked why I run,” he said. “She wanted to know what I’m running from,” he continued. “I told her I’m not running from something, I’m running toward something.” And he paused, as we watched our oldest sons run around, drifting further away, growing up faster than we dare admit. Because we’re both flat out, building, and love the game, but regret the cost. “I think the truth is I’m afraid, I’m

Hope all goes well… “We’re not particularly smart, but we’re smart enough to know,” started one of the most intelligent investors in my circle. “It’s been easy to make money for years,” he continued, out-performing stocks yet again. “As others who lag the S&P try to catch up, they take concentrated bets in the same names.” That dynamic’s unstable, look no further than the recent event-driven debacle. “There’s a n

Hope all goes well… “I sat beneath a 100 foot pine,” said the grey-haired legend. “Looking up at peaks,” he continued, pressing his hands to a prayer. Then holding finger-tips together, widened his palms, to form the shape of a mountain. “They pointed to something higher, heaven, the stars.” He paused, holding the position, as we sat in silence, considering our own mountains. “I knew then, somehow, I knew that I woul

Hope all goes well… “A million thousand infinities all connected,” said Charlie, returning his thumb to gob for effect. It had started like these things do. “To the moon,” he’d said. I replied, “To the moon and back.” Inflationary illusions. Next came the sun, stars. Distant galaxies. Infinity and beyond. But all hyperinflations end abruptly. And keen to teach my kids economic principles so they’ll study subjects of

Hope all goes well… “Is there a goddamn adult in the house?” barked Bulldog. “First the Fed inserts after-the-fact comments into their meeting minutes, saying they’re concerned about dollar strength,” growled Dawg. “What the hell is that? They never discussed the dollar at that meeting, it wasn’t even strong yet.” In a world where the only meaty bone left is American, the dollar needs to rally. Lest others starve. “T

Hope all goes well… “What happens when everyone who wanted to buy a 10% correction is already long?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “What happens when they start selling things that made money, to pay for things that lost it?” continued the mkt’s largest S&P trader. “What happens when that pushes stocks and bonds down together?” he asked, pausing. “Yes, what happens when the S&P trades 1,600 and 10yrs hit 3

Hope all goes well… “You could’ve bought as many puts as you wanted,” said Roadrunner – an elusive creature, who’s become the S&P’s biggest volatility trader by avoiding traps. “The Vol never lies.” And leaning on that lesson, he and his flock faded the move. “This is just the beginning, it’s still early, it started with the dollar, now it moves to other markets.” Ever since 2009, it was easy to buy calls when th

Hope all goes well… I got a beef. You would too if you’d tried to navigate Manhattan all week. As paranoid little dictators from every corner of the planet joined hapless elected leaders at the UN, to discuss matters of existential importance. Like global warming. Which for instance, you contribute to, every time you and your posse of pistol-packing pachyderms take 15 black Escalades 3 blocks to buy a Frappuccino. Or

Hope all goes well… “I went big, hard, I went early,” grunted Bulldog, licking dollar-drool off his chops. “After Jackson Hole, you knew Draghi was finally doing QE,” continued one of our industry’s largest risk-takers. “Now there’s serious divergence between the ECB and Fed – that’s what moves real money.” German 2yrs yield negative 0.07%; an oxymoron. US 2yrs yield 0.57%. That spread’s at a 7yr high. “This kind of

Hope all goes well… “So why have you come to our little country?” asked the policy maker. And having long ago come to terms with my stupidity, I responded simply. “The biggest answers are often found in the smallest places.” He nodded. “New Zealand is the first G10 nation to hike rates in this cycle,” I continued, “and I wonder whether any developed economy is able to withstand higher rates.” He smiled, and admitted,