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Hope all goes well… “Jackson dumped Bella,” said my 5yr old to his best friend. “What’s dumped mean?” asked Pierce. “I dunno,” admitted Charlie, embarrassed. “Well it sounds like something you’d do in a pool,” said Pierce. “Pretty sure you can do it anywhere,” replied Charlie, regretting he ever brought it up, turning to me for help, “Daddy, tell Pierce what dumped means.” And the first thing that came to mind was Ch

Hope all goes well… “Friday was the first day we’ve seen real selling,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Equity vol crushed, crude vol smashed, FX vols have no real bid, rates too.” Two weeks prior, with the S&P 50pts lower, and the dollar caught in Yellen’s testimony trap, the market was paying up for vol. So Roadrunner sold. “Covered the last of those shorts today.” And went long. “Not

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from March 2014 (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Zhou “growth rate has tumbled a bit too much,” China lowers 2nd home down-payment requirement to 40%, Japan Feb IP -3.4% (-2.6% yoy), Sarkozy’s UMP party leads Sunday elections, Arab leaders announce joint military force (confronting Iran), US Feb personal spending +0.1% (income

Hope all goes well… “Jackson’s crying!” chanted Osama bin Charlie. Jack stopped. Grew calm. “Who’s your best friend Chuck?” he asked. “Pierce,” said Charlie, smiling. “Well, you’ll never, ever, ever, ever see Pierce again.” Charlie went nuclear. Olivia wept. I excused myself to vomit. And returned to explain the importance of putting yourself in the best possible position to win; giving examples of how Mara and I do

Hope all goes well… “We live in a world of trending markets,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “Fade nothing,” continued the market’s biggest S&P local, more to himself than to me. “Corrections are meaningless.” The dollar index marched from 80 last July to over 100.50, retreating Friday to 97.80 on Yellen’s command. “But a day will come when central banks tell markets to do one thing, and they will do the opposit

Hope all goes well… He stood smiling. But not quite his smile. Behind him in the photo was a wall of countless skulls. Each with its own story, forever lost, but for its final chapter, to Pol Pot’s killing fields. Jackson has accompanied his grandmother to Cambodia, to volunteer for an Operation Smile mission. Where doctors mend the world, one child at a time. Mara had cried, as he left our little oasis for something

Hope all goes well… “The VIX curve was flat at 20-21,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Everyone expected things to fall apart, which meant we had to rally.” And as stocks spent weeks grinding to all-time highs, on declining volume and collapsing volatility, the VIX curve steepened dramatically. “It’s easier for interesting things to happen when the curve gets steep,” he explained, looking le

Hope all goes well… “I couldn’t have imagined this could happen,” said the investor, sitting in Amsterdam. “What neighbors would do to one another,” he continued, having fled Sarajevo in early 1992. “The French are socialists, with a bad economy, this breeds the resentment, it creates the conditions,” said the Dutch businessman. “The Germans have a strong economy, they need workers, and so it works, so it goes,” he c

Hope all goes well… “People were looking for multiple expansion,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “But who expected it would happen with prices at all-time highs, while earnings forecasts fall?” asked the market’s biggest S&P local. “6wks ago the S&P had 35-point ranges, now they’re 11-points,” he said. “Have sellers surrendered?” Then Yoda paused. “This is the 6th year of the bull market, what does that tell

Hope all goes well… Amsterdam. Geneva. Next stop London. And squeezed in between, high altitude. Solitude. A late night walk through the forest. Mont Blanc aglow, reflecting. Recollecting. And recalled an anecdote from my year here. Argentiere. (see below) Back next Sunday, with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade surplus record $60bln (imports -19.9% yoy, exports -3.3%), Japan CA surplus Y187bln (trade