Hope all goes well. Looks like bears are suddenly nervous about getting coal in their stockings. We got some early gifts, hit $500mm aum this mth. So I’m off to NY, thanking investors and interviewing recruits. Overall: The boys, all dressed up like Ebenezer Scrooge, started Christmas season by cruelly punishing the impoverished Irish and their poor Southern cousins. Oh how they screamed “Bah Humbug!” selling bonds d
Had a couple quiet days up in Northern CA with Mara, the kiddies and some good friends and family. Sadly, the rest of the planet didn’t hit their pause buttons too. Tensions in Korea added to the panic in peripheral Europe and traders continued to liquidate risk assets and flock to the US Dollar. Weekly Close: S&P 500 -.9% and VIX +4.2 to 22.2. Nikkei +.2%, Shanghai -.6%, Euro Stoxx -1.1%, and Bovespa -3.8%. USD
Hope all goes well. Taking off this weekend and next from w/e notes to spend time with Mara and the kiddies and recharge batteries over Thanksgiving. I read my kids Brothers Grimm Fairy Tales and found myself reading equally frightening stories at work this wk. A few new missives about Chinese rate hikes ending the world made the rounds (of course they’re written by white guys imprisoned in NY/London towers), so I ca
Hope all goes well. Busy wk, lots of visitors and jumpy mkts. Been fortunate to have low risk, gives us ammo to re-load as mkts puke. You never buy the low, or sell the high so getting in tends to hurt a bit. Overall: German Fin Min Schaeuble spoke plainly, “America’s growth model is stuck in a deep crisis, has lived beyond its means for too long, its financial sector is disproportionately inflated and its industrial
Hope all goes well. What a fascinating week. Spent it here in CA watching mkts obsess over elections, printing presses and employment reports. Overall: Global power continues to shift. Dilma Rousseff, former Marxist guerilla and now Brazil’s first female President, spoke with Obama and discussed US unemployment. She called to end “Currency Wars”, pledged fiscal conservatism – S&P/Fitch will consider an upgr
Hope all goes well. Spent an interesting few days in London. Uncertainty about the direction of mkts and the world economy persists. Flows in our industry are warming up. Overall: The G20 called for a truce in FX mkts and offensive operations ceased. The generals surveyed the field, stocked up on supplies: bought insurance (VIX +13%); food (corn +4%); and Gold (+2.5%). Stocks & Dollars were quiet/stable as foot s
Hope all goes well. Mkts continue to adjust to too many cooks in the FX kitchen. Heading into this weekend, knives were flying and it got pretty messy. We got cut up on some Renminbi and Brazil longs, Euro shorts hurt too – took some of our bigger risks off on Fri – G20 is a wildcard. Overall: There’s a war in progress. The world needs a grown-up in the sandbox or kids are gonna get hurt. WTO’s Lamy tried
Hope all goes well. Had a great trip to NY, met loads of fascinating folks. Most everyone thinks QE is driving the equity rally and don’t want to buy – ‘cause they think it’s a bad reason to own stocks. But up goes the S&P, all alone, with many sad faces waving goodbye. Speculative USD shorts hit all-time highs, but the sell-off stalled on Fri. Overall: The Chilean miners emerged from their dark hole, a fit
Hope all goes well. Foreign Exchange is the world’s chess board; and now everyone’s joined the tournament. With any luck, the novice players will make it easier for old dogs like us to win trophies. Overall: Global politicians debated the precise meaning of “currency war”; took me back to Clinton’s “what exactly is the definition of is” days. Meanwhile, in the voting booth, traders pulled the “Sell” lever; USD fell v
Hope all goes well. Just finished an insane 2 wk tour of NY/Switz, met great folks and had fun but there’s no place like home. The Swiss are more concerned about the world than New Yorker’s, but their economy’s humming and FoF industry stabilizing. Overall: Brazil’s Fin Min Mantega started the wk by stating the obvious, warning of an emerging “currency war” on Mon. Geithner ended the wk, embarrassing himself on Fri,