Category

Off to the Windy City, warm intros always appreciated. Overall: The BOJ hinted at aggressive ease but then merely tinkered and this along with the Fed’s recent modest moves left traders wondering if these guys are almost out of Red Bull. S&P’s finished their worst August in 9yrs -4.7%. The calendar flipped, US ISM surged, and the boys got caught with their beachballs deep underwater. Stocks rocketed as less-bad n

Hope all goes well. Met with lots of good folks in the Lone Star and Empire States. I had a better wk than our portfolio did. Declines in risk assets and USD strength hurt. We’ve been hoping for some weakness to buy and it often hurts on the way in. Overall: Data flow was just horrible. Home sales plunge by a record, taking the US back to ’93 levels. Ireland’s downgrade spooked investors, CDS for peripheral EU rose b

Hope all goes well. Off to NY this wk, summer just wouldn’t be summer without a sweaty ride on a 4 Train and a boozy bonfire in South Hampton. Overall: Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists scrambling to send th

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass hal

Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, Chi

Hope all goes well. Consensus is swinging toward low interest rates, low inflation, and grinding rally in risk assets. Been banking some profit into that move. Doesn’t feel like it’s over, just rather be prudent and find new structures with better risk/reward. No shortage of opportunities these days. Truth be told, there never is. Overall: Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missiv

Hope all goes well. Sat back and watched for most of the wk, then took some chips off on Fri at profit targets. Sometimes its best to just sit on your hands. Feels like this move isn’t over and guys are still off-sides, but markets remain fragile and there are plenty of X-factors lurking. Overall: Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~70% beat sales est. T

Hope all goes well. Had a great wk in NY & DC. Saw 22 investors and politicos. Closed a deal with a lotta zeros. He’d been watching us since birth, ignored our adolescence, thinks we’re grown up now. Navigated markets well. Friday’s decline was a shocker, traders are dizzier than Iranian yellow-cake. Overall: 23 S&P 500 companies reported this wk. All but 3 beat earnings estimates, and revenue/share grew by 2

Hope all goes well. Packed a lot into a short wk. Lots of traders reaching for air-sickness bags. It’s Summer. Getting busy in sleepy Santa Barbara. Lots of new friends stopping by. Must be the open invite and good weather. Overall: Major brain damage this wk. UBS cut yr-end call for S&P 500 from 1,350 to 1,150, Barton Biggs sold his tech shares, JP Morgan called for declines in EM stocks, Investors Intelligence

Overall: Global purchasing manager indexes roll-over from strong growth mode. Biggest-ever decline in US pending home sales, drop in Chinese LEI, austere G20 communiqué, and fears over a sequential decline in stimulus spending prompts continued risk-aversion. Weak job growth caps a terrible run, with S&P’s -12% in Q2, at new lows for ’10. Analysts/strategists reluctantly revise forecasts lower, Goldman softening