trading recap

Hope all goes well. What a mess. Traders step away from their screens for just a couple days and look what happens. Worst Thanksgiving wk for the S&P since 1932. It’s been three yrs in a row where this wk’s seen more than just a few gobblers slaughtered. So much for Black Friday. Week‐in‐Review: Mon: Mkts assume Supercommittee failure, Japan trd bal falls, Sing 3Q GDP solid, S&P ‐1.9%; Tue: US 3Q GDP revised

“Enough is Enough,” warned Earth’s mightiest commander‐in‐chief. You see, Obama’s frustrated by China’s reluctant revaluation of the Renminbi. He’s really had it. The time for talk is dwindling. November 2012 will do that to an incumbent. So he jetted to Australia, held hands with Prime Minister Gillard, pointed toward Beijing, vowed to “project power and deter threats to peace” in the region. He’s sending 2,500 mari

We missed our best chance. To shift course. On Tuesday. Asteroid YU55 slipped silently between Earth and Moon. As big as an aircraft carrier. Impact woulda been epic. Kaboom! Given us a jolt, a catalyst, plus something to rebuild. But alas, we’re left standing chest deep, in the slowly rising mess of our own making. Avoiding the mirror. Searching for scapegoats. Caught in Man’s endless cycle of repeat behavior. Papad

The problem with Men is we ignore the wisdom of myth and legend. John Corzine, waxed his wings, soared above Wall Street’s tallest tower to elected office. Pushed higher still, to touch the sun. Then plunged to the sea (possibly jail) drowned by hubris, like Icarus and countless others through the ages. Of course Japan’s new Finance Minister Azumi pushed the US Dollar up a hill (3rd time this yr) buying an estimated

What a relief. Yeah, the Islamists won in Tunisia. But they were the Moderate ones. And Shariah will be imposed in Libya too. Hey, I guess anything’s better than what they had. Folks celebrated – rat-a-tat-tat. You see, if you set expectations low enough, almost anything can seem pretty great. And let’s face it, expectations are low. Everywhere. How else can you explain 74% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings fore

Hope all goes well. Busy wk here. Went through the portfolio with a stiff rake. Cleaned up. Of course, we’d cut out the real rot over the past 6wks. But what few twigs remained, we gathered and burned. Then as hopes rose (and shorts squeezed) in anticipation of Europe’s latest grand plan we added a Global Contraction theme to the portfolio. You see, despite the excitement about a European Spring, and even some green

Harvard scored. Again. Nobel Prize. Economics. Lemme save you some time. In the old days, econometric models had 2 inputs: supply/demand (boring, but easy to chart). The Cambridge boys discovered if you add a few more inputs, you get different output (complex, but easy to compute). And guess what? They discovered humans respond to policy actions in ways that distort how those policies oughta work. Yeah, that’s right,

This should be easy. Honestly. We’ve seen it all before. Even us traders can remember. Bank of America revisited Mar ’09 levels. Of course, it’s still too leveraged, mismanaged, long housing – hell – it probably got greased too. Buffett’s getting buried, acting unconcerned. Morgan Stanley 1yr CDS hit 800bps, clients rush for exits. High-yield credit’s tanked. Yeah, same story, different yr. Of course, Geithner

“Ben wake up, c’mon honey, it’s me, Anna, you’re having another nightmare.” Poor little fella, they’re real scary. Recurring too. You see, despite his countless bailouts, blanket guarantees, swap line funding, QE programs, and operation twist – the economy still sucks. And it ain’t just here. Look around. Chinese manufacturing shrank 3mths running, and mighty Germany’s retail sales fell – so just imagine