trading recap

Spent some time focused on my kiddies this wk. Wasn’t alone. Prime Minister Kan led his children through an almost comically crowded pool of angry black swans. The G7 punished childish currency traders for front-running the flow of money back to Japan. The Libyan madman showered his errant children with tough love, then sent a touching note to his son in the White House. The Germans (and French), angry with their red

A man under siege grabs a weapon, shoots. And while all politicians are Man, very few are men – power is nature’s most corrosive agent. Of course, Autocrats turn weapons on their subjects. Democrats point weapons at Autocrats (when it suits). Central Bankers fire on inflation and unemployment in equal measure (well, not quite equal). And investors shoot losers. So it was this wk. Libya’s madman spent decades ex

Markets hate uncertainty; and that’s the only commodity not in short supply these days. With bulging deficits, oil at 29yr highs, recovering economies, and talk of easy-money exit strategies, investors are edgy. So leaders cut the surplus of uncertainty. Bernanke led a dovish chorus, signaled a continued flow of free paper, hinted at QE3 and stated, “The recovery is not firmly established, monetary policy needs to be

On a dark Mar ’09 morning, the world gazed intently into the rear-view mirror. Oh the Horror. But naturally, most missed the view out the windshield. Well, the S&P 500 just completed a 100% rally from that panic low; a feat last achieved in the 2yrs leading to 1937. Hmmm… And now the view in the rear view mirror just gets prettier. S&P 500 Q4 earnings +35% to all-time highs, over 70% beat profit forecasts for

Men are driven by a primeval fight-or-flight impulse so naturally, when we feel unloved or unwanted, some fight, others take flight. And the world kinda loves Doves these days, so it ain’t easy being a Hawk. But US Fed’s Lacker fought, “The distinct improvement seen in the economic outlook since QE2 was initiated, suggests taking re-evaluation quite seriously.” Fed’s Fisher battled too, “I’ll be at the forefront of t

Dizzying week, anything not bolted-down rotated – particularly attitudes. US/EU growth expectations surged, emerging mkt expectations sagged. Chicago PMI rocketed to 68.8 (highest since ’88), German PMI hit 60.5, but Brazil printed just 53.1, China 54.5, and Australia (China’s mine) fell to 46.7 (5th mthly drop). Citigroup’s Economic Surprise index measures how strong actual economic reports are relative to consensus

The fun part of 2011 ended; earnest resolutions, trades of the yr, hopes and dreams for good things to come. World got back to business. US GDP was soft. Timmy G announced, “It’s not an expansion that’s going to offer a rapid decline in unemployment.” US budget deficit’s on track for $1.5trln, the $14.29trln debt ceiling approaches, Fed balance sheet’s $2.43trln (triple ’08 level), and S&P warned they’re eyeing o

In the market’s never-ending race, it’s fascinating to watch relay batons passed from one year to the next. This wk the 2010 fear that PIIGS would sink and the EU disintegrate was passed to a new concern, the threat of higher global interest rates (strong statements by Merkel, Sarkozy and Trichet, combined with confidence the EFSF will be preemptively doubled, led to an upgrade by traders/strategists for the Euro’s i

What a show! Leaders lined up with the kinda enthusiasm usually found at a Radio City Rockette audition. Germany’s Merkel, legs kickin’ high, “We support whatever is needed to support the Euro.” France’s Sarky, arm locked with Angela, “With Ms. Merkel, we will reinforce EU economic integration.” ECB’s Trichet, flashing a petticoat made from E98bln of newly purchased peripheral debt, said the stability fund should be