weekend notes

Anecdote: “I’m often asked what role international diversification should play in our portfolio,” said the CIO of a well-regarded US plan. “Twenty years ago, EM was really coming online. China, Asia, Brazil. That theme was a no-brainer, but it’s played out. EM has been a dog for a decade.” Chinese nominal GDP has risen 1,064% since it entered the WTO in Dec 2001, yet the Shanghai Composite index h

Hope all goes well… “I don’t think anyone at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively and therefore we don’t use it,” said the Oracle of Omaha on Saturday at his annual gathering, discussing his cash hoard, which increased to $189bln from $168bln in Q4, 2023. He’s been parking it in 3- and 6-month Treasury bills. “We only swing at pitches we like,” said Buffett. “When I look at equity

Anecdote: “I, along with almost everyone in this room, have gone through life always looking ahead, always looking at what will come next,” said Jackson, Navy Co-Captain, addressing his team. “When I was a freshman, watching from the sidelines, I dreamt of the day I could make a difference on the outcome of a game, contribute, about when I would be a senior, and could make a true impact on this te

Hope all goes well… “It’s still a cynical bull market,” barked Biggie Too, Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “But there’s nothing new under the sun,” bellowed Biggie. “When the P/E gets to 25, when the real rate jumps above 3%, and all those Bull/Bear indices hit the old highs, Biggie’s gonna run for the hills,” said Too, easing into the 3rd person. “But

Anecdote: “I tried to jump into the Potomac when I was young and my mother nearly killed me,” said the CIO. “Now you could drink from our rivers if you had to, which is great, but the cleanup has meant everything is more expensive.” The Environmental Protection Agency was founded in 1970 by Nixon to protect human health and the environment. We’re all better for it. “Across an economy, we make both

Hope all goes well… “We’ve made very clear to China — and many other countries have as well — that they should not be supplying Russia with weapons for use in its aggression against Ukraine,” said Secretary of State Blinken after a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers. “It’s allowing Russia to continue the aggression against Ukraine and it’s also helping Russia overall rebuild its defense

Anecdote: “Lights go on and the rats still scatter,” grunted Bulldog, one of the great trading talents. “That tells you bulls remain too scared. Bad news hits the tape, they scramble for safety, puking longs, buying puts,” he growled. “That’s not how markets make a top. Major highs happen after everyone’s turned into an idiot, leveraged limit long into some kind of Madoff ponzi investment thesis t

Hope all goes well… “It’s just chaos,” said Jackson to the reporter. “That’s the only way I can describe it,” continued my oldest. “The first couple of minutes of it, it’s not lacrosse, I wouldn’t describe it that way.” A matchup between Navy and Army is a game unlike any other, the greatest of American rivalries. “I think it’s just mayhem,” he said, three previous battles with Army under his belt

Anecdote: “Came into the year with my team expecting 50 basis points of rate cuts and with the market pricing 125,” said Lone Star, a Top-5 best performing US endowment CIO. “Now the market has priced out 2-3 rate cuts, yet stocks have gone straight up, so something interesting is happening,” he said. “The equity market is sniffing out AI.” I had swung through Texas, taking the temperature. “Earni