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Hope all goes well. Sat back and watched for most of the wk, then took some chips off on Fri at profit targets. Sometimes its best to just sit on your hands. Feels like this move isn’t over and guys are still off-sides, but markets remain fragile and there are plenty of X-factors lurking. Overall: Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~7
Hope all goes well. Had a great wk in NY & DC. Saw 22 investors and politicos. Closed a deal with a lotta zeros. He’d been watching us since birth, ignored our adolescence, thinks we’re grown up now. Navigated markets well. Friday’s decline was a shocker, traders are dizzier than Iranian yellow-cake. Overall: 23 S&P 500 companies reported this wk. All but 3 beat earnings estimates, and rev
Hope all goes well. Packed a lot into a short wk. Lots of traders reaching for air-sickness bags. It’s Summer. Getting busy in sleepy Santa Barbara. Lots of new friends stopping by. Must be the open invite and good weather. Overall: Major brain damage this wk. UBS cut yr-end call for S&P 500 from 1,350 to 1,150, Barton Biggs sold his tech shares, JP Morgan called for declines in EM stocks, Inv
Overall: Global purchasing manager indexes roll-over from strong growth mode. Biggest-ever decline in US pending home sales, drop in Chinese LEI, austere G20 communiqué, and fears over a sequential decline in stimulus spending prompts continued risk-aversion. Weak job growth caps a terrible run, with S&P’s -12% in Q2, at new lows for ’10. Analysts/strategists reluctantly revise forecasts lower
Overall: Moody’s downgraded Greece and BP 3-4 notches, as always, ahead of the curve. S&P 500 and EM equities flipped the bird and extended rally from June 7th low to 6.4% and 7.2% respectively. Spain bond auction went fine, spread to Germany tightened from 212 to 186. CDS on European junk bonds fell to 1mth low of 521. $2.5bln EM equity fund inflow is 2nd highest of yr. No real changes to ear
Overall: Volatility of both prices and sentiment rule the day. Papers and mags starting to call this a trading range, they’re exhausted like everyone else. The Economist ran “Hope at Last” 6wks ago and then ”Fear Returns” last wk. Israel is now the mag’s cover (much easier to deal with the Middle East than stocks). Blackrock’s Fink gives the all-clear for a bull run on Wed; on Thurs Hungary’s new
Overall: Worst May for DJIA since 1940. At Tues low, mkt had ~15% correction. Economist runs cover “Fear Returns”. In April it ran a cover “Hope at Last”. They’re not the only ones buying highs and selling lows. AAII wkly poll of retail investors show over 50% bearish for 1st time since Nov. No one seems to be making money and risk levels keep dropping. HFRX HF Index
Overall: German regulators panic and spark mayhem. US Fin Reg reform passes despite 3,000 lobbyists at play. Australia slaps 40% tax on commodity producers. As big brother stomped through the underbrush, investors ran for cover, bought hedges, pushed VIX to 46 (closed wk at 40). $5.3trln lost in global equities mtd. Margin clerks took charge; pain ruled the day with a Euro rally as risk assets plu
Overall: The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on qu