weekend notes

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt

Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese rese

Hope all goes well. Consensus is swinging toward low interest rates, low inflation, and grinding rally in risk assets. Been banking some profit into that move. Doesn’t feel like it’s over, just rather be prudent and find new structures with better risk/reward. No shortage of opportunities these days. Truth be told, there never is. Overall: Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully

Hope all goes well. Sat back and watched for most of the wk, then took some chips off on Fri at profit targets. Sometimes its best to just sit on your hands. Feels like this move isn’t over and guys are still off-sides, but markets remain fragile and there are plenty of X-factors lurking. Overall: Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~7

Hope all goes well. Had a great wk in NY & DC. Saw 22 investors and politicos. Closed a deal with a lotta zeros. He’d been watching us since birth, ignored our adolescence, thinks we’re grown up now. Navigated markets well. Friday’s decline was a shocker, traders are dizzier than Iranian yellow-cake. Overall: 23 S&P 500 companies reported this wk. All but 3 beat earnings estimates, and rev

Hope all goes well. Packed a lot into a short wk. Lots of traders reaching for air-sickness bags. It’s Summer. Getting busy in sleepy Santa Barbara. Lots of new friends stopping by. Must be the open invite and good weather. Overall: Major brain damage this wk. UBS cut yr-end call for S&P 500 from 1,350 to 1,150, Barton Biggs sold his tech shares, JP Morgan called for declines in EM stocks, Inv

Overall: Global purchasing manager indexes roll-over from strong growth mode. Biggest-ever decline in US pending home sales, drop in Chinese LEI, austere G20 communiqué, and fears over a sequential decline in stimulus spending prompts continued risk-aversion. Weak job growth caps a terrible run, with S&P’s -12% in Q2, at new lows for ’10. Analysts/strategists reluctantly revise forecasts lower

Overall: Moody’s downgraded Greece and BP 3-4 notches, as always, ahead of the curve. S&P 500 and EM equities flipped the bird and extended rally from June 7th low to 6.4% and 7.2% respectively. Spain bond auction went fine, spread to Germany tightened from 212 to 186. CDS on European junk bonds fell to 1mth low of 521. $2.5bln EM equity fund inflow is 2nd highest of yr. No real changes to ear

Overall: Volatility of both prices and sentiment rule the day. Papers and mags starting to call this a trading range, they’re exhausted like everyone else. The Economist ran “Hope at Last” 6wks ago and then ”Fear Returns” last wk. Israel is now the mag’s cover (much easier to deal with the Middle East than stocks). Blackrock’s Fink gives the all-clear for a bull run on Wed; on Thurs Hungary’s new