weekend notes

Hope all goes well. Great wk; saw my family, made some money, added some risk. Looked for clever option structures to be short the US dollar. Found a bunch. Lucked out and took some Euro/Yen shorts off before the Bank of Japan intervention. Off to NY next wk and then Switzerland the wk after; thank god we manage risk better than my schedule. Overall: StrongChinese data printed, IMF judges said the

Hope all goes well. Got myself caught in a fast mkt in Chicago, lost count, still adding my fills, think I met somethin’ like 23 firms. The boys are getting loose in the saddle, ready to start switching horses soon; different tone from 3mths ago.. Overall: What a silly wk, hot air and garbage everywhere. WSJ announced the stress tests were unreliable (my kiddies knew that), and FT announced German

Off to the Windy City, warm intros always appreciated. Overall: The BOJ hinted at aggressive ease but then merely tinkered and this along with the Fed’s recent modest moves left traders wondering if these guys are almost out of Red Bull. S&P’s finished their worst August in 9yrs -4.7%. The calendar flipped, US ISM surged, and the boys got caught with their beachballs deep underwater. Stocks ro

Hope all goes well. Met with lots of good folks in the Lone Star and Empire States. I had a better wk than our portfolio did. Declines in risk assets and USD strength hurt. We’ve been hoping for some weakness to buy and it often hurts on the way in. Overall: Data flow was just horrible. Home sales plunge by a record, taking the US back to ’93 levels. Ireland’s downgrade spooked investors, CDS for

Hope all goes well. Off to NY this wk, summer just wouldn’t be summer without a sweaty ride on a 4 Train and a boozy bonfire in South Hampton. Overall: Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists s

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt

Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese rese

Hope all goes well. Consensus is swinging toward low interest rates, low inflation, and grinding rally in risk assets. Been banking some profit into that move. Doesn’t feel like it’s over, just rather be prudent and find new structures with better risk/reward. No shortage of opportunities these days. Truth be told, there never is. Overall: Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully

Hope all goes well. Sat back and watched for most of the wk, then took some chips off on Fri at profit targets. Sometimes its best to just sit on your hands. Feels like this move isn’t over and guys are still off-sides, but markets remain fragile and there are plenty of X-factors lurking. Overall: Risk assets had great week. 149 of the S&P 500 companies have reported; 85% beat earnings est, ~7