weekend notes

Anecdote: “Why are we so often our own worst enemies?” I asked myself. I didn’t bother asking GPT4, it couldn’t possibly give me the real answer. We feed these large language models everything we’ve ever learned, which is why they tell us what we already know. And this question remains as deep a mystery as any in the universe. I first started to appreciate it as a young trader. The profession requ

Hope all goes well… “Prepare yourself Teddy, you have an extremely tough year ahead,” said Jackson, my oldest, serious, his Plebe year at Navy far in the rearview. Teddy was euphoric, his appointment to West Point confirmed. But celebration time was evidently over. It lasted five minutes. “Jackson is right, but you can definitely do this,” said Liv, still living through the trauma of her first yea

Hope all goes well… Snuck out to the Tetons with the kids for a little spring skiing. Altitude. Dusted off one of my favorite climbing anecdotes, about risks, managing them. Training. Luck too. See below. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: OPEC+ cuts oil production 1.16m bpd unexpectedly, Israel CB hiked 25bps (as exp), ECB’s Holzmann says a 50bp hike is still on the cards

Anecdote: “In ten years, when we look back at this remarkable period, what will we wish we had started building today?” I asked our investment team. We carve out time each week with no structure, to see what fills the space. One River had just celebrated its 10-year anniversary with seven volatility-trading and trend-following strategies, alpha strategies, bespoke diversifying solutions, and over

Hope all goes well… “I saw this video of Elon a long time ago, talking about SpaceX [here]. And all these space pioneers were really bashing SpaceX and Elon too. And he was visibly very hurt by that and said these guys were heroes of mine and I wish they would see how hard we’re trying,” said Sam Altman, under increasing scrutiny for his life’s work. He’s the Founder/CEO of OpenAI, creator of Chat

Hope all goes well… “I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits,” answered Janet Yellen, when asked on Wednesday whether Treasury would circumvent Congress to insure all deposits. Naturally, this accelerated the bank run, as rational economic actors moved their money. “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if w

Anecdote: In my early years, captivated by Ayn Rand, I thought often of John Galt’s engine. It converted ambient atmospheric energy into electricity. Atlas Shrugged is fiction, and Galt’s engine is a metaphor of course. But I came to see that our highest purpose is in converting static electricity into motive energy. I think about that often. In a world filled with noise, distraction, waste, those

Anecdote: “They went big last weekend, which was the right thing to do,” said the Chairman, a veteran of financial crises, the two of us discussing the ongoing bank run, how policy can end it. “But the market always tests statements of confidence, whether from companies or the government,” he continued. “This week, at the first real test, policymakers mumbled.” Treasury Secretary Yellen’s response

Hope all goes well… “The overuse of the term moral hazard is distracting at best,” said the Chairman, no stranger to leading the nation though financial crises. “And at worst, it will lead to bad policy,” he said. “Moral hazard is when you knowingly take a risk in the expectation that if it goes wrong, others will bear the consequences,” he explained. “In this case, depositors were unaware of the