weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World,” Trump posted Saturday, pounding Houthis in Yemen, warning Iran’s leaders that they too will be held to account. “It has been over a year since a U.S. flagged commercial ship safely traveled through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden,” he wrote, remi

Anecdote: “Revised 2025 Bitcoin Act has been published,” texted Marcel Kasumovich, never really sleeping, one eye always open. “Key differences: (1) 200k bitcoin purchases per year, (2) Holding period now permanent, (3) Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) engaged as a coordination function, and (4) Gold reserve revaluation being used to fund bitcoin purchases,” continued Marcel, keeping the team cur

Anecdote: “There were forty of us, huddled in the middle of Cannon Field, it was absolutely dumping rain,” said Jackson, from Quantico, VA. “Our staff platoon commander had us carry out a heavy sea bag, a cooler of beer, we obviously knew this was the day.” The Basic School is a six-month program focused on developing a foundational understanding of infantry tactics, decision-making under pressure

Hope all goes well… “Bear markets happen when policy stimulus fails,” bellowed Biggie Too, Global Chief Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “They happen when the Fed cuts rates and it doesn’t work, because it’s too late,” barked Biggie. “For that to happen now, we need to see some combination of major DOGE cuts, lasting tariffs, and chronic policy uncertainty that leads to

Anecdote: In college, I took a course on global commodities, taught by a professor who made a fortune speculating in soybeans ahead of an El Nino in the 1970s. He told us there would someday be a war over who controlled Ukraine and its uniquely fertile soil. It made sense, like many things do if you remove the need to time them precisely. He taught us a lot of things, one of which was that you cou

Hope all goes well… “The American economic story has seen periods of high tariff rates coincide with extraordinary economic success,” said Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. “There’s nothing in the historical record that would say that it’s impossible to have a fabulous economy with high tariffs,” he added, explaining that Apple’s decision to invest $500bln i

Anecdote: The breadth and depth of distractions are extraordinary these days. Skinning up the mountain, the air thin, cold, a bitter gust. People appear to be losing their minds, frightened of anything, everything, like in the depths of a major crisis, and even so, markets remain rather firm, placid. International equities are outpacing the US so far this year. And Germany’s Dax index is 16.4% hig

Hope all goes well… “The plebes on my team asked for advice on defending against jabs,” said Liv, her freshmen nervous about combatives training, a mandatory hand-to-hand combat program at West Point. “So, I told them what my teacher taught me.” Her senior year in high school, Liv marched her 5 feet 4 inches to a gritty MMA gym in Stamford and took to it. “He had me stand still and let each guy in

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2018 (see below) about the changes happening in America and with Americans. Back then it became clear that a process of great significance was underway. It continued beneath the surface during the Biden years and has now manifested more clearly and forcefully than ever before. Enjoy Presidents Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the ve