weekend notes

Anecdote: “Be on the bid when they’re selling. And be the offer when they’re buying.” That’s what they taught us as young pit traders in Chicago. “Don’t have an opinion, those cost you a fortune.” But most of us did anyway. “Know where the orders are, lean on them.” We’d scramble to accumulate long positions just above a big buy order, confident we could sell into that order and get flat, losing l

Hope all goes well… “Closed-door meetings have been going on all day in DC,” said the CIO Saturday night. “They’re calling it the billionaire’s bank,” he said. “If this were 2008, there would be no question a deal would get done, but it’s 2023 and the optics are very different,” he said. “Something will get done before the market opens Monday morning. JP Morgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi, some

Anecdote: “When I’ve studied historical inflations they’re almost always caused by a combination of complacency and a focus on the nominal at the expense of real,” said Lindsay Politi, the two of us on the trading floor, our early morning chat. “After a long period of stability, inflation starts to surprise on the upside.” Initially there’s disbelief. Policy makers assume it’s temporary, wait for

Hope all goes well… For those who dodged the news on Friday, Coinbase acquired our digital asset subsidiary, One River Digital Asset Management. It’s an outstanding outcome and an incredible opportunity for us all, following a wild two-year ride on a journey that has only just begun. For my summary of how and why it all happened [click here]. Now back to work… Overall: “That is money that cannot b

Anecdote: “Innovation is a creative solution to a difficult problem,” said Marcel Kasumovich, Deputy CIO of our digital business. “Users decide its use cases, not the architects,” he continued, the two of us talking about the arcs that lead to big longer-term opportunities. “Think of the internet. It was the solution to a defense problem, spurred by a beach-ball sized satellite, Sputnik, circling

Hope all goes well… “Let’s hope this isn’t the start of Mom’s villain arc,” mumbled Teddy through his neck warmer. I should have known the Tram line was short because of extreme wind at the summit. Poor risk management. “Leave me alone. Go. All of you,” yelled Mara, 30-yards above us, skis and poles scattered, in full Rendezvous Bowl whiteout. Every family ski trip is a game of marital Russian rou

Hope all goes well… Zipped out to the Tetons for a little altitude this long weekend. Dusted off an anecdote from 2018 about magic, mysteries, the sublime wonder all around (see below). Wishing you all the very best, E Marcel Kasumovich, Deputy CIO of One River Digital, published a fantastic piece this week on the SEC’s custody proposal which most had expected to be a digital kill switch, but in t

Anecdote: “We spent a decade or more in equilibrium,” said the CIO. “The economy was highly indebted and overleveraged, which allowed the Fed to have a large influence over it with relatively small changes in rates.” Forward guidance and balance sheet adjustments too. “Then we went out and did Covid, handing everyone money,” he said. “To solve the problem Covid created, you needed to measure the d

Hope all goes well… “Brutal loss, but they were insane,” texted Liv on our family app. “Their goalie was on the cover of USA Water Polo magazine 10 times.” Liv was in Austin, playing goalie for West Point. It’s a co-ed team, but their opponents are always all-male. Liv told us it was either that or women’s boxing. Truth be told, I’ve tried hard to set my kids up to have better choices in their liv