weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Want to drive down to Philly to watch Jackson on Saturday?” I asked Charlie. “Definitely,” said my little guy, thirteen. Navy was playing UPenn, a scrimmage. “You miss him don’t you. We all do,” I said. “Camp robbed me of my time with him this summer,” said Charlie. “You know that’s about the nicest thing you could say about your big brother?” I asked. “Hey, it’s how I feel.”

When hunting for opportunities, look for things that make little sense. Pull on those threads, see where they lead. Europe grew utterly dependent on Russia for energy. America grew strategically dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors. Each is grossly negligent and should never have happened. But they did. Which makes no sense on the surface and can’t be solely attributed to corruption. These thing

Hope all goes well… “Limited beauty sleep, and lord knows I need it,” typed Marcel, Deputy CIO of our digital business, on the internal markets chat, sharing his analysis of the nature of the economic downturn now approaching. It was 3:11 AM his time and I was 5hrs ahead, prepping for the Goldman Apex Symposium. “But I feel strongly prepared for today’s discussion,” he added, grinding, ahead of an

Anecdote: Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. Six rings of white smoke raced from the cannon muzzles, billowing out across the water. The Black Knights had just marched into the endzone, and Army’s artillery squad marks each point scored with a shot. I had left the stadium after the first quarter and sat near three cannons, to write this piece, my weekly meditation. Some people concentrate best in

Hope all goes well… “You a fast runner Peters?” asked Liv’s Company Commander, the stadium loud, alive, paratroopers descending, hitting the 50-yard line in quick succession. “I’m a swimmer sir,” answered Liv, a crystal blue autumn day, leaves turning, helicopters circling. “Well, this is going to be funny then,” said the First Sergeant, handing her a long pole, a large American flag. “You’re runn

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about taking reckless risks. A harrowing story from my early years in the Chicago commodity pits. You know, it’s not only the UK pension system that got itself irresponsibly overleveraged over the past couple decades. We’ll discover plenty of others before long. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E One River Digital’s Deputy CIO, Marce

Hope all goes well… “People keep telling me investors are maximum bearish,” said Alpha, one of the market’s greatest macro minds. “The foundation for that claim is more or less that investors hold historically high cash balances.” BofA private clients reportedly hold 12% in cash and its Bull & Bear Indicator shows an Extreme Bearishness reading. “But if someone says they hold 12% cash, it mean

“I’ve seen a few bubbles in my career,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation-strategies portfolio-manager. “I think what’s easy to miss if you haven’t seen one before is how reasonable the valuations seem at the peak,” she continued. “It’s never just speculators pumping up prices, there’s always an entire academic construct justifying the valuations. Dow 36,000 was published months before the dot co

Anecdote: “Can we step into an office,” asked the older man, quietly. I was a child, twenty-six, and knew nothing, a blessing. They smoked on the trading floor back then, Lehman, London, 1992. He led me to an unoccupied glass box, closed the door. “I have a problem and need to ask you for help,” he said, unable to make eye contact. He was crying. I was confused and said nothing at first. He was a