weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about taking reckless risks. A harrowing story from my early years in the Chicago commodity pits. You know, it’s not only the UK pension system that got itself irresponsibly overleveraged over the past couple decades. We’ll discover plenty of others before long. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E One River Digital’s Deputy CIO, Marce

Hope all goes well… “People keep telling me investors are maximum bearish,” said Alpha, one of the market’s greatest macro minds. “The foundation for that claim is more or less that investors hold historically high cash balances.” BofA private clients reportedly hold 12% in cash and its Bull & Bear Indicator shows an Extreme Bearishness reading. “But if someone says they hold 12% cash, it mean

“I’ve seen a few bubbles in my career,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation-strategies portfolio-manager. “I think what’s easy to miss if you haven’t seen one before is how reasonable the valuations seem at the peak,” she continued. “It’s never just speculators pumping up prices, there’s always an entire academic construct justifying the valuations. Dow 36,000 was published months before the dot co

Anecdote: “Can we step into an office,” asked the older man, quietly. I was a child, twenty-six, and knew nothing, a blessing. They smoked on the trading floor back then, Lehman, London, 1992. He led me to an unoccupied glass box, closed the door. “I have a problem and need to ask you for help,” he said, unable to make eye contact. He was crying. I was confused and said nothing at first. He was a

Hope all goes well… “Excuse me sir, do you speak English?” I asked. “Yes,” he said. “Is this the correct track for the train to Zurich,” I continued. “Yes,” he replied, a friendly nod. “Perfect, so then I will be taking the only Swiss train on the planet that is running late today,” I said, smiling, the large display in St. Gallen showing just one delay amongst fifteen or so trains. “Ah, yes, inde

Anecdote: “The problems we’re facing, to the extent they’re actually problems, are because the industrial age is ending,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation portfolio manager, brilliant. “Check out this chart,” she said, early morning, awaiting CPI, standing desks, our screens aglow, pointing to an S-curve that tracked World GDP per capita from 1mm years ago to present. “Brad DeLong, one of my fav

Hope all goes well… Helicopters buzz the football stadium; bank hard then climb. Paratroopers jump, descend, circling, landing in succession, midfield. 4,500 cadets pack the stands, camouflage, mayhem. National anthem, hats off, hands to hearts, cannons, kick off. To my left is a graduate, Class of 1970. All around are us are veterans, season ticket holders. At halftime a POW is honored, pilot, wa

Anecdote: “When I was younger, an M&A titan asked me a question,” said the Chairman. “What is the half-life of a good idea on Wall Street?” he said, motioning to me for an answer. Naturally I shrugged, avoiding humiliation. “One deal,” he said, raising a finger, smiling. The Chairman was sharing his latest read on macro trends, including more evidence of a phase change. Back in early 2021 he a

Hope all goes well… “The tenant downstairs wants to take over the whole building,” said the real estate broker. “We’re not moving, we absolutely love our office and have 3yrs left on the lease,” I replied. “The tenant asked if you would consider putting a price on it,” said the broker. Not everything in life has a price, just most things. And good business is about remaining scrappy, always, forev