weekend notes

“Clausewitz taught that we must dismantle our enemy’s center of gravity to achieve victory,” said The Commander. “Each nation has strengths and weaknesses, and it’s natural to capitalize on weakness,” he added. “But it is critical to pick apart the strengths that make up the center of gravity,” explained The Commander. “In the case of the US, our core strengths are superior communications, logisti

Hope all goes well… “War is the continuation of politics by other means,” explained The Commander, quoting Carl von Clausewitz, the famous Prussian general and military theorist. “Von Clausewitz advocated that you continue to pound your enemy, you don’t stop a fight until you negotiate an end to it,” he added. “We tend to pause our military actions during negotiations, but Russia is doing as von C

Anecdote: Everything is connected, one moment naturally following another. And so it is tempting to think that by retracing each step we can explain why we have arrived at a particular place. Perhaps this is sometimes true, over very short periods at least. But the world is infinitely complex, and the truth is that we often arrive at a destination for reasons we can’t possibly understand, let alon

Hope all goes well… QE first started in Nov 2008 with CPI at 1.07% and ended in Mar 2010 with CPI at 2.31% (Fed bought $1.73trln of bonds in that time). We didn’t call it QE1 back then because no one thought we’d need to do it again. QE2 started in Nov 2010 with CPI at 1.14% and ended in Jun 2011 with CPI at 3.56% (Fed bought $600bln in bonds). QE3 started in Sept 2012 with CPI at 1.99% and ended

“Just a couple things today,” I said at One River’s internal risk meetings. “The first is an observation. Of the many Russia and Ukraine experts who dedicated decades to the study of the region, Putin, other key players, not even one expected this outcome,” I said. “Rarely when it comes to geopolitics does that happen. And when it does, it means we are entering a period of extraordinary uncertaint

Hope all goes well… “Are you watching Ukraine’s President?” asked Jackson, in uniform, Facetime. We all are – the whole world. And I wonder how Zelensky’s remarkable behavior will inspire our children as they come into their own, forming ideas about how they’ll lead their lives, set the bar for themselves, and what they will demand of their leaders, as they build a better future for us all.

“The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking — it cannot be changed without changing our thinking,” wrote Einstein. Like much of his work, it contains many layers. And as with all things profound, the observation is timeless. Einstein helps us understand how we can have such deeply divided nations. They are in fact different realities, created by their respective inhabitants, as v

Hope all goes well… “So will they change all the maps now Dad?” asked Charlie. “Too soon to say at this stage, wars are notoriously unpredictable, and this one just started,” I explained. “Okay, but if Russia conquers Ukraine, will they just change the maps,” he asked, not yet freed from the illusion of certainty, stability. “Borders are always changing Charlie, especially in Europe. It’s the bloo

Anecdote: “This is many years in the making, decades,” said the CIO, an extraordinary strategic thinker I respect deeply. “The forces now in play are self-reinforcing, trending toward an extreme event.” Los Angeles sprawled before us, beyond it, the Pacific, a hazy blue, timeless. “There is a bloodlust that is brewing within the mob, and these things are ultimately satisfied, you see it repeatedly