weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Thinking about the year ahead, trade conflict, industrial policy, existential technology competitions, great power conflict in the coming age of AI. And I recalled an anecdote from 2017, back when these frictions were just beginning to be brought to light and called by their proper names (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Wishing you all the very best in 202

Hope all goes well… Did a recent podcast on Capital Allocators with Ted Seides covering macro paradigm shifts, investment philosophy, and what I’m up to at both One River and Coinbase [click here to listen]. Dusted off a climbing anecdote that I reflect on as each new year approaches (see below). Back in a couple weeks with full wknd notes. All the very best, E Week-in-Review: Mon: US launches pro

Hope all goes well… Zipped out to Wyoming for Christmas with Mara and our crew, their girlfriends, boyfriend, a few others in tow. Bringing in the new year at altitude, the Tetons. Dusted off an anecdote from 2016 about the wonderful places that shape us, and we them. The value of roaming. Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, to you and your crew. E Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s 30-year bond yields fal

Hope all goes well… Army’s helicopters crossed the 50-yard line slow and low. Thump, thump, thump. The stadium went wild. Eight thousand Naval Academy and West Point cadets. Navy’s jets tore the sky in two, the sound of freedom. The crowd roared. I had flown to DC directly from Abu Dhabi, our family together again, an increasingly rare event, friends too. The Army/Navy football game is a day every

Anecdote: “I tried to help Charlie understand the importance of choosing his own path,” said Jackson, my oldest. We were walking, talking, high in the Tetons this past July. “I encouraged him to keep an open mind, watch us, collect information. By the time Charlie makes his choice, I’ll have been a Marine for nearly four years. Liv and Teddy will be off to the Army too. And none of us really know

Anecdote: Old photos of decrepit dhows, empty sand bars, pearl divers seared by the sun, smiling, hung in the lobby. Reminders of a simple past, slow, humble, modest in the extreme. The elevators lifted us from that foundation high above the desert. Glass, marble, steel, quiet offices reserved to discuss a matter of the utmost importance. Identifying opportunities, compounding the nation’s vast we

Hope all goes well… “Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad,” wrote Trump on Truth Social, providing a taste of what’s to come in foreign policy. He made America’s position clear: “Syria is a mess,

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about time and money from 2016 (see below), back when the western world seemed stuck in secular stagnation. Before Brexit, Trump, trade wars, Covid, government stimmies, runaway deficits, inflation, war in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Cold War with China. Back before AI, Nvidia, the IRA, US equity outperformance, America’s swing back to Trump. All signs

Anecdote: “Here’s the challenge for this group,” I said to our investment and solutions teams in late-2023, all of us around the big table, crowdsourcing. “For years, investors asked us to combine our strategies into a portfolio they could allocate to and forget.” We never have. “It’s now time.”  They nodded. “Use any combination of our existing strategies. Include equity beta. It must be hig