weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “It’s health and politics versus liquidity and policy,” said the CIO. “The latter is dominating,” he added. “A global $10trln economic hole has so far been filled. But you can’t tell if we’ve bridged the chasm or not – we’re fogged in.” Continuing unemployment claims exceeded 20mm for the 7th week, capacity utilization is 64.8% (1.9 points below the GFC trough), yet monthly ret

AAbolish is an extraordinary word whose use is on the rise. To abolish means to do away with, put an end to, annul, make void. It’s used when people grow tired of attempts to reform, when entrenched interests are unwilling to lighten their grip, or when there’s simply no middle ground, like with slavery, which was abolished at various times in different nations. America was shamefully late to end

Hope all goes well… “They’re all arriving in ten minutes,” said Mara, prepping for another graduation dinner in our yard, popping her head into my office. “I’ve asked all the fathers to prepare a last-minute speech, to talk about what makes them most proud about their sons.” And knowing that meant me too, I closed my laptop, wrapping up weekend notes prematurely, to refocus on my first boy for a f

America has entered a mass hysteria Hope all goes well… “I bought an AR-15 today,” said the investor. “And my neighbors bought guns from their friends who have stockpiles,” he said. “It takes a few days to get one through a gun store.” Buying a firearm in a private transaction from a friend is the fastest way to go. “Our neighboring town center was looted, it’s a wreck,” he said, living a 20-minut

A“Maybe we can afford a brownstone in Harlem,” said Mara in 2001, expecting our first, ready to nest. “We could fix it up.” So off we went, house hunting. Harlem’s magnificent single-family structures were built in the 1910s-1920s, but the Great Depression left the place mortally wounded. A series of crises, each reinforcing the next, drove it to destitution. By 2001, the grand old homes were most

Hope all goes well… “This game is about inches, little decisions, luck, never forget that,” grunted Bulldog, one of the great trading talents. “I saw that Wuhan mess in late Jan and bought S&P puts,” barked Dawg. “By mid-Feb they were pretty worthless.” From Jan 31 through Feb 19 the S&P rallied 5%. “Once the market started to puke those puts came back to life, and with days left to expira

“Nothing is so painful to the human mind as a great and sudden change,” wrote Mary Shelley in 1818, exploring our humanity through her hideous creation, Frankenstein. And ever since, we’ve leapt from one change to the next, those periods in between marked by an eerie calm that we desperately embrace, mistaking stability for reality. “We’ll continue to point out incorrect or disputed information ab

Hope all goes well… I’ve always dusted off an old anecdote for Memorial Day. But departing from tradition, I wrote something new, a glimpse of the next generation, a brighter future (see below). Enjoy your long weekend. And see you next Sunday with full wknd notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Japan Q1 GDP -3.4%, Security guards drag HK opposition lawmakers out of parliament, In

AOf the many unintended consequences of relinquishing global leadership to central bankers, the most ironic is that monetary-policy dominance ultimately denies both the future and the present of prosperity. In its fullest expression, not only does it entirely pull economic growth from tomorrow to today, but it does the same to investment returns. 30-year US Treasury bonds now yield +1.32%. Japanes