weekend notes

A transition has begun. They have always happened and forever will. In the forty-three years since the 1977 Reform Act, the Fed has had relatively simple marching orders; maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. It chose to interpret this mandate and execute it in a way that dramatically increased America’s debt and leverage while suppressing economic and market vo

Hope all goes well… “Wall Street is way bigger than the economy,” bellowed Biggie Too. “Love us or hate us, but if we go up in flames, the real economy gets smoked,” added the chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “That happens and you’ll need tanks to maintain order,” barked Biggie. “America is the world’s greatest emerging market – more like Brazil than German

“Here’s the trap that people in our field fall into,” explained the endowment CIO. “You get sucked into the idea that you need to have higher returns today,” he continued. “But that of course is not the objective – what you need is a particular return, on average, over a long number of years.” For the past few decades, in every recession, the Fed aggressively lowered interest rates, spurring an ex

Hope all goes well… “It’s health and politics versus liquidity and policy,” said the CIO. “The latter is dominating,” he added. “A global $10trln economic hole has so far been filled. But you can’t tell if we’ve bridged the chasm or not – we’re fogged in.” Continuing unemployment claims exceeded 20mm for the 7th week, capacity utilization is 64.8% (1.9 points below the GFC trough), yet monthly ret

AAbolish is an extraordinary word whose use is on the rise. To abolish means to do away with, put an end to, annul, make void. It’s used when people grow tired of attempts to reform, when entrenched interests are unwilling to lighten their grip, or when there’s simply no middle ground, like with slavery, which was abolished at various times in different nations. America was shamefully late to end

Hope all goes well… “They’re all arriving in ten minutes,” said Mara, prepping for another graduation dinner in our yard, popping her head into my office. “I’ve asked all the fathers to prepare a last-minute speech, to talk about what makes them most proud about their sons.” And knowing that meant me too, I closed my laptop, wrapping up weekend notes prematurely, to refocus on my first boy for a f

America has entered a mass hysteria Hope all goes well… “I bought an AR-15 today,” said the investor. “And my neighbors bought guns from their friends who have stockpiles,” he said. “It takes a few days to get one through a gun store.” Buying a firearm in a private transaction from a friend is the fastest way to go. “Our neighboring town center was looted, it’s a wreck,” he said, living a 20-minut

A“Maybe we can afford a brownstone in Harlem,” said Mara in 2001, expecting our first, ready to nest. “We could fix it up.” So off we went, house hunting. Harlem’s magnificent single-family structures were built in the 1910s-1920s, but the Great Depression left the place mortally wounded. A series of crises, each reinforcing the next, drove it to destitution. By 2001, the grand old homes were most

Hope all goes well… “This game is about inches, little decisions, luck, never forget that,” grunted Bulldog, one of the great trading talents. “I saw that Wuhan mess in late Jan and bought S&P puts,” barked Dawg. “By mid-Feb they were pretty worthless.” From Jan 31 through Feb 19 the S&P rallied 5%. “Once the market started to puke those puts came back to life, and with days left to expira