weekend notes

Anecdote: With each passing year of this crazy game, he placed less weight on the value of price action, he thought, reflecting, walking, wandering. He recalled, as a young trader, how lower stock prices following a strong employment report turned him bearish. He loved to buy markets that rallied for no reason. And sold things that fell suddenly. The faster the better. The less things made sense,

Hope all goes well… If Apple and other cash rich employers tell employees to work from home and not travel lest they get sick and some die, what shall other less prosperous companies do? If those other companies insist employees come to work and some get sick and die, won’t those companies get sued now that Apple set this standard? If the answer is yes, then how many companies will send employees

Where might this lead? he thought, the stars bright. He’d always loved walking at night, shadows, noises that heighten the senses, turning the everyday ordinary into something extraordinary. But mostly, he loved the heavens. And marveled at how the setting sun unveiled the infinite. This new virus seemed sure to sweep the globe, as such things periodically do. In his discussions with scientists, s

“Deglobalization is the most powerful theme in the world,” said the investor. “It will reshape politics, economics and markets in profound ways.” The process has only just begun. “Everyone built global supply chains to produce goods for the US consumer.” In making those capital commitments, they assumed the geopolitical landscape and international trade relations in coming decades will remain unch

Hope all goes well… The ritual began. A retelling of the day’s worst wipe-outs. We had a foot of fresh powder, which for a family accustomed to New Hampshire blue ice, takes some getting used to. Of course, every White Mountain gift comes at a cost, and today’s bill amounted to 25-40mph winds and negative 4-degrees Fahrenheit. Olivia had some hilarious face plants. Teddy had a full yard sale, skis

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2016 (see below). A discussion with an extraordinary human being, on the long fight for freedom. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China CPI +0.9 to +5.4% (PPI +0.6 to +0.1%), Turkey imposes new controls on currency speculation, Italian industrial production -4.3%, Merkel’s protégé Annegret Kra

“What’s tomorrow’s test about Mom?” asked Charlie (10), lying on the kitchen couch. “It’s your math placement exam,” answered Mara. “Is it important?” he asked. “No need to be nervous Charlie. F*$%-ing Kumon,” said Mara calmly. [In 2008, Bulldog and I were talking trading, life, kids – seamlessly switching from one to the other. He started his career like most of us; a lucky break on some de

Hope all goes well… “Every economist I know just dusted off their dual PhD in virology,” said the CIO. “Is virology even a real word?” he asked, not waiting for an answer. “How can you take seriously their forecasts on China’s Q1 economic collapse, followed by the V-shaped Q2 recovery, Q3 slowdown and Q4 return to trend?” Scattered across his desk were crayon-colored zig zags, tracing out various

A“Let’s start with what I’d tell a 25-year-old to not do with investment capital,” answered the CIO. He’d been asked how our youth should invest for 10-15yrs. “I’d tell them to not blindly follow their parents and grandparents as they pay ever higher multiples for a shrinking pool of equity assets,” he continued. In 1982 when Baby Boomers were coming of age, they paid a 6.6x Shiller price-to-earni