weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “I have come to the conclusion that there will be no fair trial in the Senate. I don’t believe the continuation of this process will change anything. It is sad for me to admit that, as an institution, Congress has failed,” said Lisa Murkowski, Republican Senator. “It has also become clear some of my colleagues intend to further politicize this process, and drag the Suprem

A“Financial markets have capitulated to the secular stagnation narrative,” said the CIO, high atop his prodigious pile. “And in so doing, they have tethered themselves to the wrong inevitabilities – to low interest rates forever, to asymmetric central bank reaction functions, to a negative bond-equity correlation,” he added, peering into the distance. “And now a financial system which is structura

Hope all goes well… “Regardez! Regardez!” cheered some French children, pointing across the runway, a chilly, grey day. Air Force One lifted off, condensation swirling off its wingtips, leaving the Davos circus behind, Zurich’s airfield crawling in corporate jets. A few adults discretely turned to watch, trying hard to appear not to care. Nearby, a plane full of Chinese disembarked from their long

“Start with what we know for sure,” said Big Foot, creeping quietly through global markets, trackers desperate to front-run his every step. “If 100% of all investing is passive, then the information contained in market prices is meaningless,” continued the CEO of one of the industry’s largest investment firms. In 2009, assets in actively-managed mutual funds were 3x those of index-based funds/ETFs

Hope all goes well… “Do you solemnly swear you will do impartial justice, according to the Constitution and laws, so help you God?” asked Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, presiding over the 3rd impeachment trial in US history. All one-hundred senators stood and said, “I do.” And so began the formal end to American’s faith that their politicians are capable of either impartial justice or u

A“The Sanders/Warren risk is underpriced,” said the CIO. “And the decay on the trade is positive.” With Bernie rising impressively in the polls, markets should price the growing possibility of his nomination. Iowa’s primary is Feb 3rd. New Hampshire is Feb 11. By March 17th we’ll have 61% of the primary results. By April 28th we’ll have over 85%. “Let’s do the math,” he said. The S&P 500 is cu

Hope all goes well… “I do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So h

Hope all goes well… At the dawn of a new decade, I dusted off an anecdote on climbing things large and enduring (see below). Wishing you and your crew all the very best in 2020. See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US mthly trade deficit narrows to 2016 levels (3rd consecutive mthly contraction), Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast for Q4 GDP +2.3%, Ch

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote on how we mold the places we live and they in turn shape us (see below). I recalled it when our dog Shackleton passed just before Christmas, a short, well-loved, well-lived life. Wishing you and your crew all the very best in 2020. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China to cut import tariffs on 859 items as part of Phase One deal, Chinese g