weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “What happens when two tribes each believe that theirs can do no wrong?” he asked, sitting on the bank, history flowing like a river. “Or what results when two tribes convince themselves that the other committed some sin first, and this then justifies an unethical response of similar proportion?” he wondered aloud. “And is there ever a point, where the members of one tribe refl

A“WeWork never had a fighting chance of being worth more than zero,” said Lithium, hands-free on Highway One. “It’s arguable that Uber and Lyft have a chance to make it – at least their business model should survive in some form,” he said, banking a turn, the Pacific to his left, Malibu’s dunes lit by autumn sun. “Softbank mastered the art of the sardine factory.” In legendary investor Seth Klarma

A“Let’s run Dad,” said Charlie, and off he went down the trail. We’d spent the day at altitude, climbing cliffs. Charlie is our youngest of four, which means we rarely return from an adventure without my little man bumping up against his limit. Mountains have a wonderful way of helping you find that pressure point. From there, you must decide where to go – climb or crumble. Charlie melted do

Hope all goes well… “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device,” said Charlie, my 10yr old, reading lyrics to his favorite song, Hotel California. We listen to music, discuss the lyrics, one of my great joys in life. “I think it means we can do things to imprison ourselves, to trap ourselves,” he explained, a little confused. I nodded, though of course, lyrics can mean different things to

A“When Ceasar conquered Gaul, they sent food back to Rome,” said Warren Mosler, a pioneer in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). “Winners get things from losers – Rome never sent tribute,” he said. We were discussing economic misconceptions. After a decade of monetary experimentation led to negative interest rates, stagnant economies and perplexed PhDs, it’s time to reconsider our basic assumption

Hope all goes well… “He just engineered another rate cut,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity vol trader. “The Fed is chasing Trump’s tail,” he continued, stocks rebounding bond yields plunging. Trump knows lower rates are good for equities and thinks a strong S&P will wash away his sins. “The numbers seem to be tracking the trade war, and with each leg lower in economic data Powell

A“I’m not yet sure how to think about the conflict,” said the same macro CIO. “I can imagine a world where East and West coexist peacefully, but I know some powerful people here who think the window is closing on America’s ability to contain China and maintain military superiority,” he said. “That’s the kind of worldview that leads to kinetic conflict. But the US misunderstands China. Ironically,

Hope all goes well… “Chairman, the horse has left the barn, you have all of the information,” said Joseph Macguire, Acting Director of National Intelligence. But of course, in these sorts of matters, when a person of authority first says you have all the information, the only thing you know for sure is that there’s more to come. And with that, the markets repriced. In betting websites, odds of Tru

“When the board asked me to lead this course, I wondered how to hold the student’s attention for 3yrs,” said the teacher, intelligent, passionate, perfect. Mara and I hustled class-to-class, getting fifteen-minute intros to our kid’s courses. Olivia insisted we visit this 3yr independent-study class. “But I quickly found we were pressed for time,” added the teacher. Darien high school sophomores c