weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Wanted to make sure you’re seeing this,” texted a PM from one of those multi-manager monstrosities. “8 standard deviation move in the Momentum Factor in 5-days,” he added. I heard his heart pounding all the way from Australia. “Guys who defended positions in the Q4 selloff all got fired, so the message is real clear – when things start getting weird, take immediate corrective

AFor as long as he could remember, it was the same. Presidents came and went, rising, falling, like the tides. They commanded a House or Senate majority, sometimes both. They started wars, each time rediscovering they’re easier to enter than exit. Our Presidents addressed the nation annually, pretending to lead, but followed. The State of the Union ebbed and flowed like the market, reflecting an e

AThe clock is ticking, he thought, gazing out at 35,000 feet. Above was the most perfect blue. Far below, concealed by clouds, lay Hong Kong. In tumult. He’d always admired the rebels, the risk takers. They’re our salvation, our liberators, without them nothing changes. And since the protests had started, he marveled at the brave young souls who dare defy Beijing and its puppet, Carrie Lam. The Br

Hope all goes well… “When a central bank undershoots its inflation target, it can promise to the public that it will overshoot in the future,” said Chairman Powell. “As it makes up for lost inflation, the bank would also be making up for lost growth,” he added. But of course, central banks cannot make up for anything that is lost. Central banks can only choose to pull real growth from the future t

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote about inequality and the powerful forces that propagate it (see below). I wrote it just 2yrs ago, summer of 2017, when Argentina issued a $2.75bln 100yr bond at a 7.9% yield (40bps above the average US State Pension Plan target return). And despite having defaulted eight times in their 200yr history, the Argentina 2117 issue was gobbled up. Those bond

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote about trading, risk taking, seeing the future unfold in the past (see below). I give myself a break from writing each August to get some altitude, find a little space. See you again in September with full weekend notes.  Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China’s PBOC makes the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) the new benchmark for lending (resul

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote about China’s use of the power of fiat money and how it fits into their broader approach to policy (see below). It’s something worth considering as the west shifts away from central bank independence. I give myself a break from writing each August to get a little altitude, find a little space. See you in September with full weekend notes.  Week-i

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old climbing anecdote from my days in the mountains (see below). I give myself a break from writing each August and try to get a little altitude with the family. Wishing the same for you and your crew. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China let’s RMB fall through 7.00 and announces halt to US agricultural purchases in response to US trade pressure, Ch

“Guess what happened today Dad?” yelled Charlie (10), biking in slow circles, waiting for me, some new story to tell. I’d just pulled into our driveway, another day of grinding it out in markets. “I got a leech on my ball sack!” he screamed, laughing, for all the neighborhood to hear. You see, Mara and I didn’t have four kids to turn around and pay others to work around the house. They do everythi