weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “We strongly caution actors external to the Western Hemisphere against deploying military assets to Venezuela, or elsewhere in the Hemisphere, with the intent of establishing or expanding military operations,” warned national security advisor John Bolton as Russian military cargo planes dropped 100 Special Forces and 35 tons of unidentified cargo onto Venezuela. “We will consid

A“Only optimists start companies,” I answered. The Australian superannuation CEO had asked if I’m an optimist or pessimist. “I see the potential for technological advances to produce abundance in ways difficult to fathom. But I also see the chance of something profoundly dark,” I continued. He observed that people seemed consumed by the latter but spend so little time on the former. “That’s good.

Hope all goes well… “The 737 Max 8 can be flown safely without these two gauges,” said the pilot union spokesman, “But there’s a broader margin of safety if you’ve got them.” Boeing charges a little extra for a safety feature that alerts pilots to faulty information from key sensors. Boeing’s CEO weighed the risk/reward, then chose to charge customers for something that should obviously come as st

“When we can’t come up with a clear catalyst, that’s when we know whatever arises will (1) be unexpected, and (2) cause a greater reaction,” said the endowment. They were discussing what worried them, why they continued de-risking, exiting short volatility strategies, and adding long volatility. “The inability to point to a catalyst means that the asset class (vol) is cheaper and becoming a better

AThe ocean was glass. Stars ablaze. We were a full day’s journey from land, not a sign of urban glow. A lantern hung above the card table at stern. We huddled below it, playing cards. Ten good friends, 1995. The first six days were spent diving, exploring the inner reef, a magnificent place, filled with prey, predators, darting, dancing in the shallows. But like all adventures, new had become old,

Hope all goes well… “When you’re a goalie, you have a choice,” I said. Charlie nodded, focused on the field. “You can stay in the goal or leave it.” He nodded. “If you choose to leave goal, you must fully commit.” Lacrosse season again, my youngest is nine. “So what exactly does that mean Dad?” I stood behind goal, coaching, the opposing team advancing. “It means if you leave goal, you absolutely

“See that hotel?” I asked the kids, driving. They unentangled themselves from iPads. In the distance was a sprawling relic, nestled in New Hampshire’s vast wild. “It’s one of the world’s most historic places – The Mount Washington Hotel, in Bretton Woods.” Charlie asked for the story. In the closing year of World War II, we knew we’d win. With the rest of the globe demolished, destitute, des

Hope all goes well… “Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the re-investments of the sizable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs,” said Mario Draghi, tightening his neck brace and abruptly throwing Europe’s central bank into reverse. Just 2mths after ending 4yrs of quantitative easing, Eu

“A bear market followed by a swift recovery doesn’t concern us,” explained the CIO, high atop an Australian money mountain. “What worries us is a decline that’s not followed by a recovery.” We were discussing risks his savers face as they approach retirement. “Even a modest market decline late in their saving years can have a major impact on retirement. In fact, a sideways market would really hurt