weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “What are you going to do out there today Charlie?” asked Jackson (17). Charlie took a knee, sporting brand-new lacrosse gear, tying his bright white cleats for the first time, another season, another size. Summer tournaments have officially begun. “I’m going to run really fast today,” answered Charlie (9), kind of annoyed. Having coached my kids for years, it’s fun to watch th

China published a government white paper June 2nd titled: China’s Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations. Their Vice Minister of Commerce held a press conference to discuss the matter. The paper’s position will make it hard for Beijing to stand down on a variety of issues that the US insists are vital. The white paper was 5,000 words. Here are the 250 that most matter: It is o

Hope all goes well… “The bubble is beginning,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too-Big-To-Fail affairs. “The Fed’s going to cut rates when it shouldn’t,” he barked. Global Trade War thumped in Biggie’s headphones. The beat rhymed with that 1998 tune, Long Term Capital. “This is the start of the dollar collapse,” said Too. “This is the start of inflation —

“Their methods continue to grow in sophistication,” said the engineer. “They collect data exhaust – your emails, chats, phone records, who you called, how long you spoke, your trades, what time you transacted, how you sized each relative position in your portfolio, and so on,” he said. We were discussing advances in Alpha Capture strategies employed by the industry’s large quantitative firms

Hope all goes well… “We’re learning how to deliver a baby Dad,” said my daughter, 15. “Of course you are Olivia,” I said, no longer amazed. “We train on a robot that screams, moans, has contractions, and if all goes well, out comes a baby.” Olivia joined our town’s first-responders program – Post 53. In headquarters hang photos of their many proud deliveries. “What happens if the baby’s breech?” I

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from Feb 4th, 2018 on myths, manias, illusions, delusions (see below). Have a wonderful Memorial Day. And see you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China threatens to retaliate for America’s Huawei restrictions, Japan Q1 GDP jumps +2.1% (exp -0.2%), Japan Q1 exports -2.4% (imports -4.6%), Aussie conservativ

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from five years ago about China, America, what the world needs (see below). Mara and I blew out of Dodge this weekend. Left behind our four kids, two dogs, nine chickens, two turtles, a rabbit, two lacrosse tournaments, a Jazz concert, junior prom, countless carpools, the utter fiasco we call our routine life, and my writing. What a great few days we’ve h

Proxy: The worst combat since the 2014 war left 4 Israelis and 22 Palestinians dead last week. The latter launched missiles from Gaza into Israel. The former retaliated. One is supported politically/financially by China. The other by America. Of course, it all unfolded in the run up to the latest Beijing/US trade negotiations. On cue, Iran threatened US forces in response to our sanctions against

Hope all goes well… “Fed overtightened,” bellowed Biggie Too, global chief strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “Tech spending is rolling over, ISM was a shocker.” In the background, a steady rhythm of tariffs and trade thumped, traders bouncing to the beat. “Investors were thinking that with Beijing’s stimulus, the rest of the world would catch the US. But that didn’t happ