weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Wanna know what they’re asking Biggie?” bellowed Biggie Too, rocking through life in third person. “They say Biggie, tell us why this market is so oversold but can’t catch a bid,” continued the Global Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too Big to Fail affairs. “They say Biggie, tell us why the Feds announced a $800bln budget deficit from all that pretty stimu

Hope all goes well… “I’ve been to three meetings, but I couldn’t tell you the club’s name,” confessed Jackson, my 16yr old. “Something to do with battling domestic abuse,” he continued, “The more clubs you have, the better your college app.” Club inflation has arrived, the Phillips curve finally kicked in. “My other club is SADD or something like that.” I asked what it meant. “Students against dum

Hope all goes well… “The US is experiencing a remarkably positive set of economic circumstances,” said Jay Powell. “There’s really no reason to think this cycle can’t continue for quite some time,” continued the Fed Chairman. “We’re a long way from neutral Fed Funds at this point, probably.” Unemployment returned to the 1969 low of 3.7%, spurred by an unprecedented late-cycle fiscal stimulus. Q3 e

Hope all goes well… “I was trying to preserve the institutional credibility of two institutions,” said Jeff Flake, the Arizona Republican. “One, the Supreme Court is the lone institution where most Americans still have some faith. And then the US Senate as an institution – we’re coming apart at the seams,” continued the Senator, having managed to buy a week for the FBI to investigate the Kav

Hope all goes well… “I’m not like the investors you’re meeting here in Sydney,” he said. “I live 40km inland, to the west. My friends and neighbors feel left behind, the elderly struggle to keep the heat on in winter. It’s a different world.” Australia has a new prime minister, its 5th in 5yrs — Scott Morrison is the socially conservative architect of Australia’s hardline anti-asylum seeker

Hope all goes well… “Just keep swimming, just keep swimming,” said Olivia, my 15yr old, ready to roll. I’d asked what she thinks about during morning laps. “That’s what Dory tells herself, in Finding Nemo,” she explained. I remembered watching that movie with her, years ago, they fly so fast. Another summer gone, back to school. We pulled up to the pool, 5am darkness, cool pre-dawn energy. “What d

Hope all goes well… For the last three weeks Lindsay Politi has authored Weekend Notes, exploring the topic of inflation. She wrapped it up today (see below). I’ll be back next Sunday. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China Caixin PMI manu -0.2 to 50.6 (14mth low), China official PMI manu +0.1 to 51.3, Indonesia rupiah 20yr low, Turkey central bank to “adjust monetary

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next two weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next few weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors