weekend notes

We met a large public pension because they were unhappy with their inflation-linked bond performance. I remembered when public pension funds added inflation-linked bonds to their policy portfolios in 2011/12. Around that same time, I was asked to advise a client about TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). They wanted to develop their own version of a risk parity portfolio. They were usin

Hope all goes well…I usually recycle old anecdotes during my August break from writing. But I asked Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, to author Weekend Notes during my hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. Lindsay has spent the last few months speaking to a diverse cross section

Hope all goes well… I take Aug through early Sept off from weekend notes. Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about the dangers of genius, the value of experience (see below). Enjoy your August. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China’s renminbi stabilizes following Friday’s hike to 20% reserve requirements for speculative shorts, Saudi Arabia expels Canadian ambassador after Canada sup

Hope all goes well… The US and EU account for over 50% of global GDP and have the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, exchanging $1.1trln of goods and services annually; there’s no more integrated economic relationship on earth. One-third of world trade involves the US and EU – the US is humanity’s #1 customer, accounting for 18% of all imports, the EU is #2 at 15%. Total US invest

Hope all goes well… I’m not thrilled,” said the President. “Now, I’m just saying the same thing I would’ve said as a private citizen,” continued the property developer. “So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as President.’ I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed.” The Federal Reserve’s 7 hikes widened the chasm between US interest rates and those of

Hope all goes well… The planet’s most powerful military threatened to reconsider NATO unless Europeans meet their spending commitments. Europe’s leaders repeated unfulfilled pledges to do just that, returning to their parliaments to find the funds. Earth’s biggest consumer threatened to impose 10% tariffs on another $200bln of imports from the planet’s largest producer. Beijing vowed to retaliate.

“I have no great gifts to offer other than a deep sense of the magic that’s possible for all of us…especially the kids,” wrote the guide, checking in from the Rockies. Teddy, our 13yr old, escaped Connecticut’s sea-level insanity to join him at altitude. In a blind race to Ivy League admission, America’s children now suffocate in summer sports. Two club leagues, sometimes three, speed clinics, str

Hope all goes well… “You know the one thing I want you all to take away from this experience?” I asked the kiddies. No one said a word, I was grateful, who knows what they were thinking. The shock of our latest family crisis had started to subside. And we were pretty sure Oliver would be okay in the end, his leg more shattered than the transatlantic Alliance. “Someday, when your husband or wife ru

Hope all goes well… “If the main priority is fighting this administration then we need to address the systemic problems that resulted in his rise in the first place — and that is perpetuation of the economic, social and racial injustice in the United States that has led to a rift that has created the room for a rise of a demagogue like Donald Trump,” said Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the authen