weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “My colleagues and I may have misjudged the strength of the labor market, the degree to which longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with our inflation objective, or even the fundamental forces driving inflation,” admitted our Fed Chairwoman. “Our understanding of the forces driving inflation is imperfect, and we recognize that something more persistent may be respons

Hope all goes well… “Just back from Tokyo,” said the strategist. “Closed door session kind of trip.” Twenty top Japanese and Chinese investors, business leaders. “Not a single one was terribly bothered by Kim Jong Un, it’s the other haircut they’re worried about.” No one has yet made a material portfolio adjustment. A few bought some Nikkei puts. “They’ve learned to live with crazy North Korean Ki

Hope all goes well… “As a safety, you can’t let anyone get behind you Charlie,” I said, driving my 3rd grader, coaching, gameday. “The strange thing about football is that the harder you hit your opponent, the less it hurts,” I explained, as he watched late summer roll by, window down, helmet in lap. “Wanna know something amazing Daddy?” he asked. “Hydrangeas can grow into trees, with the same hug

Hope all goes well… “They’ve retraced back to election levels,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “That often happens, not all that unusual, though it surprised most people this time.” US 10-year bond yields closed Friday at 2.06%, just below the November 9th post-election close. “Stocks have not done the same.” The S&P 500 remains 12% above the Nov 9th close. “Bu

Hope all goes well… “Awesome day Dad,” said Olivia, talking fast, braces, braids, 2nd day at her new school. “Teachers are great, kids are super nice.” I smiled, driving home. “Just one problem, three different girls asked me to be their roommate for the school trip to Boston.” I waited for an explanation. “And I said yes to all three without really thinking.” No doubt, getting caught short can be

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about pain, nonlinearity (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese bank leverage declines $270bln YTD (1st decline in 7yrs), Bannon fired (returns to Breitbart), Trump to prioritize tax reform, Trump

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about standing up, (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you again in Sept with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China ind production +6.8% (fixed asset investment +8.3%, retail sales +10.4%), PBOC fixes CNY 1yr high, Japan Q2 GDP +4.0% on strong domestic d

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 about castles made of sand (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: HK dollar nears decade low vs US dollar, iron ore prices +7%, Indonesia GDP +5.0%, South Africa to hold Zuma no-confidence vote, UB

Hope all goes well… In place of weekend notes, I wrote a piece titled: The Case for Long Volatility (see below). We see a compelling opportunity developing in the months ahead and are launching a fund to capture it. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China services PMI -0.4 to 54.5, Japan IP -1.6 to +4.9%, iron ore prices 4mth high, EU CPI unch at +1.3%, EU unemployment 9.1% (2009 lows)